Picks · strand · season 2026/27
Daily Under retired
Nothing on this page is a bet, and nothing here is advice.
Every pick is chosen by the rule below, logged before kick-off, settled in public. Stakes are an imaginary
£10; £0 has ever been staked. Three seasons of our own testing found no betting profit; the fair
expectation for this strand is a paper loss over time. That expectation, printed here, is the point.
Record
5-11-0
won-lost-push/void
Paper P/L
£-75.45
imaginary £10 a pick, £0 staked
CLV
-1.7%
beat the close 31% of 16
Run
1 / 3
current / best this season
The rule, in full
Retired 24 Sep 2026 after beating the closing price only 31% of the time across its 16 picks. Its rule was: the highest-edge pick-test passer on a standard half-line under (over/under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5) with a future kick-off, one per kick-off date. No new picks; every pick it made stays here, losses and all.
Retired. This strand logs no new picks and sits outside the exit rule. Its record stays here in full.
The curve, honestly
Cumulative paper P/L at the imaginary £10, every settled pick, losses in. It stays up when it falls.
Open
No open pick. An empty day stays empty.
Every settled pick
16 settled · wins and losses alike · nothing removed.
| Day | Fixture | Pick | Odds | Result | Score | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid | under 3.5 goals | 1.73 | WON | 2-1 | +3.5% |
| 2026-09-19 | Cardiff v Charlton | under 2.5 goals | 2.26 | LOST | 3-1 | +2.7% |
| 2026-09-18 | Espanyol v Elche | under 2.5 goals | 1.88 | LOST | 1-3 | -9.6% |
| 2026-09-13 | Sassuolo v Juventus | under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | LOST | 3-2 | -0.7% |
| 2026-09-12 | Southampton v Bristol City | under 3.5 goals | 1.51 | LOST | 4-1 | -1.2% |
| 2026-09-09 | Norwich v Birmingham | under 2.5 goals | 1.98 | LOST | 2-1 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-06 | Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Augsburg | under 3.5 goals | 1.72 | LOST | 1-4 | -6.1% |
| 2026-09-05 | 1899 Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund | under 3.5 goals | 1.72 | LOST | 2-3 | -1.3% |
| 2026-09-04 | Paris Saint Germain v Monaco | under 3.5 goals | 1.74 | WON | 1-2 | -11.8% |
| 2026-09-01 | Birmingham v Southampton | under 2.5 goals | 1.92 | WON | 1-1 | -7.2% |
| 2026-08-31 | Atalanta v Bologna | under 3.0 goals | 1.51 | WON | 1-0 | +1.1% |
| 2026-08-30 | SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen | under 3.0 goals | 1.62 | LOST | 4-1 | -2.0% |
| 2026-08-29 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | under 3.0 goals | 1.84 | LOST | 2-2 | -6.4% |
| 2026-08-28 | Alaves v Villarreal | under 3.0 goals | 1.56 | WON | 1-0 | -1.3% |
| 2026-08-24 | Fulham v Chelsea | under 3.0 goals | 1.79 | LOST | 2-3 | +12.6% |
| 2026-08-22 | Birmingham v Bristol City | under 3.0 goals | 1.54 | LOST | 2-2 | +1.4% |
All strands side by side, dead ones included: the picks page. Why strands get added and retired: model changes. The credibility check behind every number: calibration.