Picks · strand · season 2026/27

Pick of the Day

Nothing on this page is a bet, and nothing here is advice. Every pick is chosen by the rule below, logged before kick-off, settled in public. Stakes are an imaginary £10; £0 has ever been staked. Three seasons of our own testing found no betting profit; the fair expectation for this strand is a paper loss over time. That expectation, printed here, is the point.

Record

3-9-0

won-lost-push/void

Paper P/L

£-51.57

imaginary £10 a pick, £0 staked

CLV

+2.2%

beat the close 67% of 12

Run

0 / 1

current / best this season

The rule, in full

The model’s single strongest call of the day. Among picks that pass the pick test (a 4-point edge over the margin-free price, odds of 1.50 or longer, not flagged by the distrust guard) on a market a UK high-street bookmaker quotes, and whose edge also clears the 12-point conviction bar, priced 1.50 to 4.00: the biggest edge. One per kick-off date; none when nothing qualifies. It picks first, so the other strands work around it. Pre-registered 11 Oct 2026 to start on 26 Oct; brought forward to 17 Oct on the day the model’s supremacy fix went live, logged before its first pick. Checked beforehand on the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons (1X2 and over/under 2.5 only): beat the close 51.5% of the time, CLV +0.7%, worst losing run 7. Backtests flatter.

The exit rule (every live strand, printed 17 Oct 2026): over its last 30 settled picks logged since 17 Oct 2026, beat the closing price under 40% of the time with an average CLV below zero and it retires at the next Monday review. Rolling. Win or retire — the run it is on has nothing to do with it.
Where it stands: Collecting: 12 of the 30 settled picks since 17 Oct 2026 are in. Nothing can be judged yet.

The curve, honestly

Cumulative paper P/L at the imaginary £10, every settled pick, losses in. It stays up when it falls.

Open

Open pick (2026-11-03): QPR v Burnley — QPR, draw no bet @ 1.50. Settles after full-time.

Open pick (2026-11-04): Bristol City v Wolves — Bristol City, draw no bet @ 2.41. Settles after full-time.

Every settled pick

12 settled · wins and losses alike · nothing removed.

Day	Fixture	Pick	Odds	Result	Score	CLV
2026-11-01	Marseille v Toulouse	Toulouse, draw no bet	2.73	LOST	2-0	+3.3%
2026-10-31	Stoke City v Preston	Preston, draw no bet	3.32	LOST	2-0	+3.1%
2026-10-30	SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05	FSV Mainz 05, draw no bet	1.55	LOST	4-1	+1.2%
2026-10-29	Frosinone v Lecce	Lecce, draw no bet	3.29	LOST	5-1	+0.6%
2026-10-28	AC Milan v Bologna	Bologna or the draw	2.31	WON	2-4	+8.8%
2026-10-25	Barcelona v Real Madrid	Real Madrid under 1.5 goals	1.88	LOST	1-2	+2.6%
2026-10-24	Lincoln v Burnley	Lincoln, draw no bet	2.12	WON	4-1	+8.0%
2026-10-23	Torino v Monza	Monza, draw no bet	2.45	LOST	3-2	-0.7%
2026-10-21	Levante v Athletic Club	Levante, draw no bet	2.41	WON	3-1	-4.6%
2026-10-19	Tottenham v Coventry	Tottenham under 1.5 goals	2.60	LOST	3-1	+5.1%
2026-10-18	Real Madrid v Sevilla	Real Madrid under 2.5 goals	1.90	LOST	4-1	-1.0%
2026-10-17	Everton v Chelsea	Everton, draw no bet	2.23	LOST	0-2	+0.0%

All strands side by side, dead ones included: the picks page. Why strands get added and retired: model changes. The credibility check behind every number: calibration.