Picks · strand · season 2026/27

Scoreline of the Day

Nothing on this page is a bet, and nothing here is advice. Every pick is chosen by the rule below, logged before kick-off, settled in public. Stakes are an imaginary £10; £0 has ever been staked. Three seasons of our own testing found no betting profit; the fair expectation for this strand is a paper loss over time. That expectation, printed here, is the point.

Record

3-10-0

won-lost-push/void

Paper P/L

£+59.92

imaginary £10 a pick, £0 staked

CLV

-0.7%

beat the close 62% of 13

Run

0 / 2

current / best this season

The rule, in full

The scoreline the model thinks likeliest — which is still usually wrong. For each match, the biggest cell on the model’s scoreline grid; kept only when its correct-score price is no worse than the model’s own number, it is not flagged by the distrust guard and odds are 1.50 or longer. Of those, the scoreline the model is surest of is headlined. One per kick-off date; it picks last, so it only ever takes a match no other strand wanted. Expect a hit rate around one in seven and losing runs past twenty: that is the correct-score market. It cannot be backtested (we hold no historical correct-score closing prices), so it runs live under the exit rule from day one. Added 17 Oct 2026.

The exit rule (every live strand, printed 17 Oct 2026): over its last 30 settled picks logged since 17 Oct 2026, beat the closing price under 40% of the time with an average CLV below zero and it retires at the next Monday review. Rolling. Win or retire — the run it is on has nothing to do with it.
Where it stands: Collecting: 13 of the 30 settled picks since 17 Oct 2026 are in. Nothing can be judged yet.

The curve, honestly

Cumulative paper P/L at the imaginary £10, every settled pick, losses in. It stays up when it falls.

Open

Open pick (2026-11-03): Watford v Lincoln — exactly 1-1 @ 6.46. Settles after full-time.

Every settled pick

13 settled · wins and losses alike · nothing removed.

Day	Fixture	Pick	Odds	Result	Score	CLV
2026-11-02	Newcastle v Everton	exactly 1-1	6.63	LOST	0-1	-1.0%
2026-11-01	Juventus v Napoli	exactly 1-1	6.17	LOST	2-0	+1.4%
2026-10-31	Aston Villa v Fulham	exactly 1-1	7.00	WON	1-1	+4.2%
2026-10-30	Sheffield Utd v Wrexham	exactly 1-1	6.24	LOST	1-0	+1.1%
2026-10-29	Fiorentina v Atalanta	exactly 1-1	6.70	LOST	2-2	-10.0%
2026-10-28	Monza v Napoli	exactly 1-1	6.76	LOST	1-4	-6.4%
2026-10-27	AS Roma v Cagliari	exactly 2-0	6.22	LOST	4-2	+6.9%
2026-10-25	Lecce v Juventus	exactly 0-1	6.17	LOST	0-2	-7.1%
2026-10-24	Blackburn v Wrexham	exactly 1-1	5.91	LOST	2-0	+0.2%
2026-10-23	Ipswich v Nottingham Forest	exactly 1-1	6.49	WON	1-1	+1.1%
2026-10-19	Getafe v Rayo Vallecano	exactly 1-1	5.51	WON	1-1	-1.8%
2026-10-18	Juventus v Lazio	exactly 1-0	6.35	LOST	0-3	+1.1%
2026-10-17	Valencia v Athletic Club	exactly 1-1	5.92	LOST	0-0	+1.7%

All strands side by side, dead ones included: the picks page. Why strands get added and retired: model changes. The credibility check behind every number: calibration.