FC St. Pauli 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.91–1.55.
The brain read
FC St. Pauli created the better chances — the xG read 1.9–1.6, with the shot count roughly even (17–15, 6–7 on target). FC St. Pauli's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 6 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created FC St. Pauli shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw | 1.23 | 76.3% |
| Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw | 1.95 | 48.1% |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.7% |
| Draw no bet — FC St. Pauli | 1.36 | 67.9% |
| Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2.89 | 32.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 79.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.48 | 37.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.56 | 59.4% |
| FC St. Pauli over 1.5 team goals | 1.68 | 55.6% |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals | 2.72 | 34.2% |
| FC St. Pauli clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.96 · 2-1 7.68 · 1-0 8.59 · 2-0 9.59 · 2-2 11.65
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-09 13:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off.