SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–4 1. FC Nürnberg
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–4; by chance quality the match ran 2.75–1.20.
The brain read
The xG read 2.8–1.2 in SpVgg Greuther Fürth's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 14–15 overall and 6–8 on target went 1. FC Nürnberg's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. 1. FC Nürnberg's finishing ran hot — 4 from 1.2 xG, 8 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw | 1.63 | 57.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Nürnberg or draw | 1.36 | 68.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2.18 | 42.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Nürnberg | 1.62 | 57.3% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 56.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.59 | 35.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 60.4% | +0.5 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals | 2.33 | 40.0% | -0.2 pts |
| 1. FC Nürnberg over 1.5 team goals | 1.92 | 48.5% | +1.0 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -0.9 pts |
| 1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.55 · 1-2 8.29 · 0-1 9.19 · 2-1 9.99 · 2-2 10.76
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-15 13:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec 25 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2-2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |