Racing Santander 2–2 Villarreal
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.01–0.87.
The brain read
Racing Santander created the better chances — the xG read 2–0.9, with the shot count roughly even (17–12, 3–7 on target). Villarreal's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 7 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Racing Santander shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Racing Santander or draw | 1.76 | 53.5% | -4.1 pts |
| Double chance Villarreal or draw | 1.30 | 72.5% | +3.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Racing Santander | 2.49 | 37.6% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Villarreal | 1.50 | 62.4% | +5.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 79.3% | +4.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 57.9% | +5.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.54 | 37.1% | +5.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 60.9% | +4.3 pts |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 team goals | 2.46 | 38.0% | +1.4 pts |
| Villarreal over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 51.7% | +6.7 pts |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 4.88 | 19.2% | -4.0 pts |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 3.30 | 28.3% | -0.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.76 · 1-2 8.19 · 0-1 9.20 · 2-1 10.78 · 2-2 10.91
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-16 17:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).