FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · Championship · Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC

Watford
v Southampton

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The model's read

Watford
29%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Southampton
43%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Watford or draw57.2%
Double chance Southampton or draw70.9%
Double chance either team71.8%
Over 1.5 goals75.6%
Over 2.5 goals49.6%
Over 3.5 goals27.7%
Both teams to score54.7%
Watford over 1.5 team goals33.1%
Southampton over 1.5 team goals43.5%
Watford clean sheet22.8%
Southampton clean sheet30.7%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.4% · 0-1 9.1% · 1-2 9.0% · 0-0 8.2% · 0-2 7.6%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Recent form — Watford

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
02 MayL0-4Coventry (H)1.7 - 1.4
25 AprL1-5Middlesbrough (A)0.8 - 2.3
21 AprL0-3West Brom (A)0.6 - 1.5
18 AprL0-2Sheffield Utd (H)1.3 - 0.8
11 AprL0-2Oxford United (A)0.8 - 1.9
06 AprD1-1Charlton (H)1.3 - 2.1

Recent form — Southampton

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
12 MayW2-1Middlesbrough (H)2.0 - 1.0
09 MayD0-0Middlesbrough (A)0.6 - 1.8
02 MayW3-1Preston (A)2.4 - 1.9
28 AprD2-2Ipswich (H)1.0 - 1.9
21 AprD2-2Bristol City (H)2.0 - 0.7
18 AprW2-1Swansea (A)1.2 - 1.2

Chance quality, most recent season

Watford
+0.04
xG diff/game · 1.22 for, 1.18 against
Southampton
+0.41
xG diff/game · 1.67 for, 1.25 against

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
07 Feb 26Southampton1-0Watford
30 Aug 25Watford2-2Southampton