1. FC Nürnberg 4–1 Arminia Bielefeld
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.94–1.19.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.9–1.2, shots 13–21 with 6–5 on target. 1. FC Nürnberg's finishing ran hot — 4 from 0.9 xG, 6 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 4–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Reichert (G)
- 4 A. Kalogeropoulos (D)
- 10 J. Justvan (M)
- 19 P. Scobel (F)
- 22 F. Becker (M)
- 23 M. Zoma (M)
- 32 T. Janisch (D)
- 36 K. Mandic (D)
- 41 E. Porstner (D)
Bench: K. El Haija, R. Ghrieb, S. Haugen, Rafael Lubach, G. Masouras, Marko Soldic
Arminia Bielefeld 4-3-3
- 1 J. Kersken (G)
- 5 M. Bauer (D)
- 6 M. Mehlem (M)
- 7 H. Koudossou (D)
- 8 S. Schreck (M)
- 10 J. Rochelt (F)
- 11 J. Grodowski (F)
- 14 M. Momuluh (F)
- 19 M. Großer (D)
- 21 S. Russo (M)
- 29 T. Handwerker (D)
Bench: L. Oppermann, A. Sicker, R. Uldriķis, M. Wörl, E. Yasar, I. Young, J. Felix, Benjamin Bediako Boakye
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1. FC Nürnberg or draw | 1.38 | 68.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance Arminia Bielefeld or draw | 1.64 | 57.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Nürnberg | 1.62 | 57.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arminia Bielefeld | 2.16 | 43.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.7% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57.2% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.56 | 36.5% | +1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 60.5% | +1.2 pts |
| 1. FC Nürnberg over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.4% | +0.7 pts |
| Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 team goals | 2.29 | 40.7% | +1.2 pts |
| 1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.83 · 2-1 8.52 · 1-0 9.26 · 1-2 9.80 · 0-1 11.00
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 18:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Nov 25 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2-0 | Arminia Bielefeld |