Birmingham 1–1 Southampton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.55–1.02.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Birmingham to win (36%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Birmingham created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–1, with the shot count roughly even (16–13, 4–4 on target). Southampton held 63% of the ball. A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Birmingham shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 1.49 | 62.7% | -4.1 pts |
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 1.46 | 64.0% | +2.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.3% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Birmingham | 1.88 | 49.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Southampton | 1.84 | 50.6% | +4.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 76.4% | +2.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 54.3% | +3.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.80 | 33.4% | +2.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.58 | 59.0% | +2.8 pts |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 2.23 | 41.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 2.17 | 43.0% | +5.5 pts |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 3.65 | 25.5% | -2.3 pts |
| Southampton clean sheet | 3.65 | 25.5% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.32 · 1-2 8.80 · 2-1 9.04 · 0-1 9.28 · 1-0 9.51
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-01 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 25 | Birmingham | 1-1 | Southampton |
| 06 Dec 25 | Southampton | 3-1 | Birmingham |