Portsmouth 0–2 Derby
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.84–0.55.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Portsmouth to win (36%); it finished with Derby to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 34% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.8–0.6, shots 21–8 with 3–5 on target. Portsmouth got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 7) and Portsmouth held 66% of the ball. Portsmouth's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.8 xG despite 3 of 21 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Portsmouth or draw | 1.23 | 75.7% | +5.7 pts |
| Double chance Derby or draw | 1.83 | 51.0% | -7.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.2% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Portsmouth | 1.40 | 66.3% | +8.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Derby | 2.75 | 33.7% | -8.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.41 | 27.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Portsmouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.2% | +4.5 pts |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 3.30 | 28.2% | -4.5 pts |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 2.48 | 37.6% | +7.1 pts |
| Derby clean sheet | 4.17 | 22.4% | -4.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.15 · 1-0 6.48 · 2-1 7.94 · 2-0 8.63 · 0-0 8.87
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-01 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 26 | Portsmouth | 0-1 | Derby |
| 20 Dec 25 | Derby | 1-1 | Portsmouth |