Stoke City 1–0 Norwich
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.22–1.44.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Norwich to win (37%); it finished with Stoke City to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 34% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Norwich created the better chances — the xG read 0.2–1.4 and the shot count agreed (6–15, 2–6 on target). Norwich held 72% of the ball. Norwich's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.4 xG despite 6 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–0 flatters Stoke City — on chances created, Norwich shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.73 | 54.0% | -6.3 pts |
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 1.29 | 72.5% | +5.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 2.44 | 38.0% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Norwich | 1.50 | 62.0% | +7.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.18 | 29.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.88 | 32.3% | -4.9 pts |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.2% | +3.8 pts |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.2% | -4.4 pts |
| Norwich clean sheet | 2.81 | 32.9% | +5.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.32 · 0-1 7.38 · 1-2 8.09 · 0-2 9.57 · 0-0 9.78
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-01 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Jan 26 | Norwich | 0-2 | Stoke City |
| 27 Sep 25 | Stoke City | 1-1 | Norwich |