Swansea 2–0 Watford
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.71–0.88.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Swansea to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 40% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Swansea created the better chances — the xG read 2.7–0.9 and the shot count agreed (18–9, 8–3 on target). Watford's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.9 xG despite 3 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 2–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 1.22 | 76.6% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance Watford or draw | 1.90 | 49.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Swansea | 1.36 | 68.0% | +1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Watford | 2.90 | 32.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.89 | 50.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.17 | 29.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 1.91 | 48.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 3.20 | 29.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Swansea clean sheet | 2.56 | 36.3% | +2.4 pts |
| Watford clean sheet | 4.42 | 21.1% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.46 · 1-0 6.95 · 2-1 7.82 · 2-0 8.57 · 0-0 10.24
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-01 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Watford | 0-2 | Swansea |
| 23 Aug 25 | Swansea | 1-1 | Watford |