Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 FC St. Pauli
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.06–1.00.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–1, shots 9–8 with 2–5 on target. Arminia Bielefeld's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1.1 xG, 2 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 2–2 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Arminia Bielefeld 4-1-4-1
- 1 J. Kersken (G)
- 5 M. Bauer (D)
- 6 M. Mehlem (M)
- 7 H. Koudossou (D)
- 10 J. Rochelt (M)
- 11 J. Grodowski (F)
- 14 M. Momuluh (M)
- 17 A. Sicker (D)
- 19 M. Großer (D)
- 21 S. Russo (M)
- 38 M. Wörl (M)
Bench: Benjamin Bediako Boakye, J. Felix, T. Handwerker, L. Jensen, D. Min, S. Schreck, T. Wegener, I. Young, L. Oppermann
FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
- 1 B. Voll (G)
- 4 D. Nemeth (D)
- 6 M. Mathisen (D)
- 8 E. Smith (M)
- 10 B. Hrgota (M)
- 11 A. Pyrka (M)
- 15 T. Ando (D)
- 18 T. Hara (M)
- 19 M. Kaars (F)
- 20 M. Rasmussen (M)
- 23 L. Oppie (M)
Bench: E. Ahlstrand, Abdoulie Ceesay, A. Dźwigała, J. Fujita, Samuel Klein, C. Metcalfe, D. Mitov, Y. Niang, L. Ritzka
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Arminia Bielefeld or draw | 1.39 | 67.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw | 1.58 | 59.0% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 73.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arminia Bielefeld | 1.70 | 54.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — FC St. Pauli | 2.04 | 45.5% | +3.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 79.8% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 58.5% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.49 | 37.6% | +1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 61.9% | +1.2 pts |
| Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 team goals | 1.95 | 48.0% | -1.0 pts |
| FC St. Pauli over 1.5 team goals | 2.19 | 42.7% | +2.6 pts |
| Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
| FC St. Pauli clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.70 · 2-1 8.55 · 1-2 9.48 · 1-0 9.96 · 2-2 10.56
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-04 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).