FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Bundesliga · Sat 05 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC

FC Schalke 04 00 Bayern München

← Back to the board

What the chances were worth

FC Schalke 04
0.21
expected goals (xG)
Bayern München
1.94
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.21–1.94.

The brain read

Bayern München created the better chances — the xG read 0.2–1.9 and the shot count agreed (4–15, 1–5 on target). Bayern München got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 3) and Bayern München held 83% of the ball. Bayern München's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.9 xG despite 5 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Bayern München shaded the game.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

FC Schalke 04
Bayern München
17%
Ball Possession
83%
4
Total Shots
15
1
Shots on Goal
5
3
Shots off Goal
6
0
Blocked Shots
4
3
Shots inside box
10
1
Shots outside box
5
0
Corner Kicks
11
0
Offsides
1
183
Total passes
914
109
Passes accurate
838
5
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1
12
Free Kicks
5

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

Confirmed line-ups

Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.

FC Schalke 04 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 L. Karius (G)
  2. 4 H. Kuruçay (D)
  3. 5 T. Becker (D)
  4. 8 R. Gosens (M)
  5. 9 M. Sylla (F)
  6. 13 S. Tanaka (M)
  7. 21 D. Ljubičić (M)
  8. 23 S. El-Faouzi (M)
  9. 24 A. Aouchiche (M)
  10. 25 N. Katić (D)
  11. 29 J. Dina Ebimbe (M)

Bench: K. Karaman, K. Müller, L. Vozar, M. Wöber, J. Adamu, M. Ayhan, J. Bachmann, Vitalie Becker, E. Džeko

Bayern München

  1. 1 M. Neuer (G)
  2. 2 D. Upamecano (D)
  3. 4 J. Tah (D)
  4. 6 J. Kimmich (M)
  5. 11 N. Brown (M)
  6. 14 L. Díaz (M)
  7. 19 A. Davies (D)
  8. 27 K. Laimer (D)
  9. 34 I. Saibari (F)
  10. 42 L. Karl (M)
  11. 45 A. Pavlović (M)

Bench: H. Kane, Kim Min-Jae, J. Musiala, M. Olise, Bara Ndiaye, J. Stanišić, J. Urbig, T. Bischof, H. Ito

The market’s read

FC Schalke 04
7%
market implied · price 13.97 · opened 7%
Draw
11%
market implied · price 8.94 · opened 11%
Bayern München
82%
market implied · price 1.16 · opened 82%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance FC Schalke 04 or draw5.2218.4%-0.1 pts
Double chance Bayern München or draw1.0492.7%-0.0 pts
Double chance either team1.0888.9%+0.2 pts
Draw no bet — FC Schalke 0411.008.6%-0.6 pts
Draw no bet — Bayern München1.0491.4%+0.6 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.0390.2%+0.9 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.2078.7%+2.6 pts
Over 3.5 goals1.5660.7%+2.2 pts
Both teams to score1.6656.1%+2.0 pts
FC Schalke 04 over 1.5 team goals4.0523.3%+1.7 pts
Bayern München over 1.5 team goals1.1382.8%+1.7 pts
FC Schalke 04 clean sheet21.004.6%-0.5 pts
Bayern München clean sheet2.2042.4%-1.7 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-3 8.68 · 0-2 9.48 · 1-3 9.62 · 0-4 10.17 · 1-2 10.25

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.