VfL Wolfsburg 4–4 Energie Cottbus
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–4; by chance quality the match ran 3.82–3.05.
The brain read
The xG read 3.8–3 in VfL Wolfsburg's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 19–21 overall and 7–9 on target went Energie Cottbus's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Energie Cottbus's finishing ran hot — 4 from 3 xG, 9 of 21 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
VfL Wolfsburg 4-3-3
- 2 K. Fischer (D)
- 5 Vinicius Souza (M)
- 6 H. Wahl (D)
- 11 F. Reese (F)
- 17 A. Bernhardsson (F)
- 19 R. Glatzel (F)
- 21 J. Mæhle (D)
- 22 M. Angely (D)
- 27 M. Arnold (M)
- 30 J. Zieliński (G)
- 37 E. Rexhbeçaj (M)
Bench: J. Adjetey, A. Besio, Cleiton, M. Damar, Y. Gerhardt, P. Hensel, P. Pervan, K. Shiogai, M. Svanberg
Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Lotka (G)
- 2 K. Manu (D)
- 3 H. Rorig (D)
- 8 Lukas Michelbrink (M)
- 9 L. Copado (F)
- 10 T. Ciğerci (M)
- 20 A. Borgmann (M)
- 21 Luca Erlein (D)
- 23 Fousseny Doumbia (D)
- 31 J. Butler (M)
- 32 L. Bittencourt (M)
Bench: Dmytro Bohdanov, T. Campulka, M. Hannemann, C. Kinsombi, R. Malone, D. Pelivan, J. Zaydan, J. Boziaris, K. Kratzsch
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw | 1.07 | 87.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw | 3.20 | 29.5% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.14 | 82.6% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfL Wolfsburg | 1.11 | 84.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Energie Cottbus | 6.08 | 15.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 86.1% | +2.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.34 | 69.3% | +4.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.88 | 49.9% | +5.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 58.9% | +4.2 pts |
| VfL Wolfsburg over 1.5 team goals | 1.28 | 72.9% | +2.7 pts |
| Energie Cottbus over 1.5 team goals | 3.50 | 26.9% | +3.1 pts |
| VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Energie Cottbus clean sheet | 11.00 | 8.7% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 8.32 · 2-0 8.70 · 3-1 9.70 · 3-0 9.95 · 1-1 10.45
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-05 10:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).