SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–1 1. FC Heidenheim
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.60–0.88.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.9, shots 14–6 with 5–5 on target. SpVgg Greuther Fürth got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 3) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth held 68% of the ball. On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-4-2
- 1 Florian Hellstern (G)
- 6 S. Bansé (M)
- 7 D. Srbeny (F)
- 10 Ole Pohlmann (M)
- 13 P. Will (M)
- 22 J. Heuer (D)
- 23 J. Dehm (D)
- 27 G. Itter (D)
- 29 K. Keresztes (D)
- 30 F. Klaus (F)
- 37 F. Ademi (M)
Bench: D. Arifi, Elias Benkara, Hendry Aron Blank, J. Siebatcheu, A. Keller, C. Ortag, Lukas Reich, O. Sillah, M. Wallentowitz
1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
- 2 M. Busch (M)
- 3 J. Schöppner (M)
- 6 P. Mainka (D)
- 11 B. Zivzivadze (F)
- 17 M. Honsak (M)
- 18 A. Vogt (F)
- 19 J. Föhrenbach (D)
- 22 O. Mhamdi (D)
- 24 M. Costly (M)
- 27 M. Heule (D)
- 33 T. Dähne (G)
Bench: M. Zrilic, Y. Wagner, T. Siersleben, L. Paqarada, J. Niehues, P. Hennrich, Frank Feller, C. Conteh, M. Breunig
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw | 1.59 | 59.1% | +1.0 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw | 1.41 | 66.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2.05 | 45.3% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.70 | 54.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 84.3% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 65.4% | +2.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 45.8% | +3.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.38 | 67.2% | +2.2 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals | 1.96 | 48.1% | +2.9 pts |
| 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.5 team goals | 1.77 | 53.0% | +1.0 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
| 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.78 · 1-2 9.14 · 2-2 10.00 · 2-1 10.15 · 0-1 13.19
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).