FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · 2. Bundesliga · Sun 06 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 01 1. FC Heidenheim

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What the chances were worth

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0.60
expected goals (xG)
1. FC Heidenheim
0.88
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.60–0.88.

The brain read

Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.9, shots 14–6 with 5–5 on target. SpVgg Greuther Fürth got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 3) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth held 68% of the ball. On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–1 suggests.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1. FC Heidenheim
68%
Ball Possession
32%
14
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Goal
5
3
Shots off Goal
1
6
Blocked Shots
0
6
Shots inside box
3
8
Shots outside box
3
7
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
2
564
Total passes
266
480
Passes accurate
185
7
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
10
Free Kicks
7

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

Confirmed line-ups

Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-4-2

  1. 1 Florian Hellstern (G)
  2. 6 S. Bansé (M)
  3. 7 D. Srbeny (F)
  4. 10 Ole Pohlmann (M)
  5. 13 P. Will (M)
  6. 22 J. Heuer (D)
  7. 23 J. Dehm (D)
  8. 27 G. Itter (D)
  9. 29 K. Keresztes (D)
  10. 30 F. Klaus (F)
  11. 37 F. Ademi (M)

Bench: D. Arifi, Elias Benkara, Hendry Aron Blank, J. Siebatcheu, A. Keller, C. Ortag, Lukas Reich, O. Sillah, M. Wallentowitz

1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2

  1. 2 M. Busch (M)
  2. 3 J. Schöppner (M)
  3. 6 P. Mainka (D)
  4. 11 B. Zivzivadze (F)
  5. 17 M. Honsak (M)
  6. 18 A. Vogt (F)
  7. 19 J. Föhrenbach (D)
  8. 22 O. Mhamdi (D)
  9. 24 M. Costly (M)
  10. 27 M. Heule (D)
  11. 33 T. Dähne (G)

Bench: M. Zrilic, Y. Wagner, T. Siersleben, L. Paqarada, J. Niehues, P. Hennrich, Frank Feller, C. Conteh, M. Breunig

The market’s read

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
34%
market implied · price 2.74 · opened 33%
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.68 · opened 26%
1. FC Heidenheim
40%
market implied · price 2.31 · opened 42%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw1.5959.1%+1.0 pts
Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw1.4166.4%-0.8 pts
Double chance either team1.2674.4%-0.2 pts
Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth2.0545.3%+1.0 pts
Draw no bet — 1. FC Heidenheim1.7054.7%-1.0 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.1084.3%+2.1 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.4265.4%+2.9 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.0545.8%+3.7 pts
Both teams to score1.3867.2%+2.2 pts
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals1.9648.1%+2.9 pts
1. FC Heidenheim over 1.5 team goals1.7753.0%+1.0 pts
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet5.0019.0%+0.0 pts
1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet4.0023.4%+0.0 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.78 · 1-2 9.14 · 2-2 10.00 · 2-1 10.15 · 0-1 13.19

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-06 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.