Fixture · Bundesliga · Fri 18 Sep 2026, 19:30 BST
Bayern München
v Union Berlin
The model's read
Bayern München
66%
match result
Draw
19%
match result
Union Berlin
15%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Bayern München or draw | 84.7% |
| Double chance Union Berlin or draw | 34.1% |
| Double chance either team | 81.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.5% |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% |
| Bayern München over 1.5 team goals | 72.3% |
| Union Berlin over 1.5 team goals | 33.6% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 30.2% |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 7.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 9.2% · 1-1 7.9% · 3-1 7.8% · 2-0 7.7% · 3-0 6.5%
Model readiness. Bayern München has played 4 league games this season, Union Berlin 3 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Bayern München
90%
market implied · price 1.06 · opened 88%
Draw
6%
market implied · price 14.89 · opened 8%
Union Berlin
4%
market implied · price 24.43 · opened 4%
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bayern München or draw | 1.01 | 95.9% | +0.1 pts | 84.7% | -11.2 |
| Double chance Union Berlin or draw | 9.83 | 9.9% | -1.0 pts | 34.1% | +24.2 |
| Double chance either team | 1.03 | 94.2% | +0.9 pts | 81.2% | -13.0 |
| Draw no bet — Bayern München | 1.02 | 94.1% | +0.7 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Union Berlin | 16.15 | 5.9% | -0.7 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.03 | 93.1% | +0.4 pts | 89.5% | -3.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.11 | 83.8% | +0.9 pts | 72.2% | -11.6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.36 | 68.9% | +1.0 pts | 51.5% | -17.4 |
| Both teams to score | 1.82 | 51.3% | -1.0 pts | 65.0% | +13.7 |
| Bayern München over 1.5 team goals | 1.07 | 87.5% | +0.3 pts | 72.3% | -15.3 |
| Union Berlin over 1.5 team goals | 5.07 | 18.4% | -1.3 pts | 33.6% | +15.2 |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 1.91 | 48.5% | +2.1 pts | 30.2% | -18.3 |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 29.00 | 3.4% | -0.4 pts | 7.8% | +4.5 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 3-0 8.23 · 4-0 8.29 · 5-0 10.09 · 2-0 10.62 · 3-1 11.20
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bayern München
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 18 league games (W14 D4).
- Bayern München have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- 6 of Bayern München's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Bayern München's last 6 home league games.
Union Berlin
- Union Berlin are winless in their last 3 league games (D1 L2).
- 5 of Union Berlin's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- J. Kimmich has 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
- I. Saibari has 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
- T. Skarke has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- F. Rønnow has made 12 saves in 2 league games this season.
- J. Juranović has 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Bayern München
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 2-1 | SV Elversberg (A) | — |
| 10 Sep | W | 5-0 | Bodo/Glimt (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | FC Schalke 04 (A) | 1.9 - 0.2 |
| 28 Aug | W | 5-1 | VfB Stuttgart (H) | 3.9 - 0.9 |
| 16 May | W | 5-1 | 1. FC Köln (H) | 3.0 - 1.0 |
| 09 May | W | 1-0 | VfL Wolfsburg (A) | 1.9 - 3.0 |
Recent form — Union Berlin
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | L | 1-3 | FC Schalke 04 (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-4 | Bayer Leverkusen (A) | 0.4 - 3.1 |
| 29 Aug | D | 3-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (H) | 1.8 - 1.5 |
| 16 May | W | 4-0 | FC Augsburg (H) | 3.7 - 0.6 |
| 10 May | W | 3-1 | FSV Mainz 05 (A) | 2.7 - 1.6 |
| 02 May | D | 2-2 | 1. FC Köln (H) | 1.1 - 1.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Bayern München
+2.40
xG diff/game · 2.94 for, 0.54 against
Union Berlin
-1.18
xG diff/game · 1.11 for, 2.29 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2.333 | 7–2 | WDW |
| Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0.333 | 4–10 | LLD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 5.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Union Berlin | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 4.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Bayern München 7 wins, 3 draws, Union Berlin 0 wins — 3.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Bayern München | 4-0 | Union Berlin |
| 08 Nov 25 | Union Berlin | 2-2 | Bayern München |