Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Fri 18 Sep 2026, 17:30 BST

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
v 1. FC Magdeburg

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The model's read

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

38%

match result

Draw

26%

match result

1. FC Magdeburg

36%

match result

Market	Model probability
Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw	64.0%
Double chance 1. FC Magdeburg or draw	61.8%
Double chance either team	74.2%
Over 1.5 goals	83.1%
Over 2.5 goals	60.7%
Over 3.5 goals	38.4%
Both teams to score	63.8%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals	47.3%
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 team goals	45.7%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet	21.3%
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet	20.3%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.7% · 2-1 8.5% · 1-2 8.2% · 2-2 6.6% · 1-0 5.8%

Model readiness. SpVgg Greuther Fürth has played 5 league games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.

Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public, separately, on the calibration page.

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

The market’s read

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

34%

market implied · price 2.73 · opened 36%

Draw

25%

market implied · price 3.67 · opened 26%

1. FC Magdeburg

41%

market implied · price 2.27 · opened 39%

Market	Consensus price	Implied chance	Move	Model	Gap
Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw	1.57	59.6%	-1.8 pts	64.0%	+4.4
Double chance 1. FC Magdeburg or draw	1.43	65.5%	+1.2 pts	61.8%	-3.6
Double chance either team	1.25	74.9%	+0.6 pts	74.2%	-0.7
Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth	2.05	45.6%	-2.5 pts	—	—
Draw no bet — 1. FC Magdeburg	1.72	54.4%	+2.5 pts	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.11	83.5%	+0.7 pts	83.1%	-0.3
Over 2.5 goals	1.43	65.1%	+1.6 pts	60.7%	-4.4
Over 3.5 goals	2.09	45.0%	+1.1 pts	38.4%	-6.6
Both teams to score	1.39	66.5%	+0.7 pts	63.8%	-2.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals	1.95	47.9%	-0.7 pts	47.3%	-0.6
1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 team goals	1.75	53.2%	+2.5 pts	45.7%	-7.5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet	5.50	17.2%	-1.8 pts	21.3%	+4.2
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet	4.33	21.7%	+0.0 pts	20.3%	-1.4

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.80 · 1-2 9.23 · 2-1 10.16 · 2-2 10.39 · 0-1 12.57

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:05 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.