SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 1. FC Magdeburg
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.70–0.90.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win (38%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.7–0.9, shots 8–14 with 4–6 on target. A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-3-3
- 1 Florian Hellstern (G)
- 2 Lukas Reich (D)
- 6 S. Bansé (M)
- 8 S. Appelkamp (M)
- 10 Ole Pohlmann (F)
- 13 P. Will (M)
- 22 J. Heuer (D)
- 27 G. Itter (D)
- 30 F. Klaus (F)
- 34 Hendry Aron Blank (D)
- 42 O. Sillah (F)
Bench: D. Arifi, Elias Benkara, J. Dehm, J. Siebatcheu, F. Ademi, A. Keller, K. Keresztes, Silas Joel Prüfrock, D. Srbeny
1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
- 1 D. Reimann (G)
- 3 A. MacNulty (M)
- 5 T. Müller (D)
- 7 H. Bockhorn (D)
- 8 E. Iyoha (F)
- 10 M. Kwarteng (F)
- 17 A. Nollenberger (D)
- 21 F. Michel (M)
- 22 M. Żukowski (F)
- 26 T. Müsel (M)
- 38 L. Hyryläinen (D)
Bench: Magnus Elias Baars, F. Chávez, E. Džogović, D. Heber, N. Kruth, Leon Mergner, P. Nadjombe, R. Šimić, R. Tachie
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw | 1.64 | 56.9% | -4.4 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Magdeburg or draw | 1.37 | 68.3% | +4.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 74.8% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2.19 | 42.7% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Magdeburg | 1.63 | 57.3% | +5.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 83.0% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 63.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 43.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.41 | 66.0% | +0.2 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.3% | -2.3 pts |
| 1. FC Magdeburg over 1.5 team goals | 1.73 | 54.0% | +3.2 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -1.8 pts |
| 1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.48 · 1-2 8.87 · 2-2 10.32 · 2-1 10.55 · 0-1 12.01
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-18 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb 26 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 4-5 | 1. FC Magdeburg |
| 31 Aug 25 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 4-5 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |