Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.49–2.52.
The brain read
1. FC Heidenheim created the better chances — the xG read 0.5–2.5 and the shot count agreed (6–14, 3–7 on target). 1. FC Heidenheim got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 2). Arminia Bielefeld's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.5 xG, 3 of 6 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created 1. FC Heidenheim shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Arminia Bielefeld or draw | 1.33 | 70.2% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw | 1.71 | 54.8% | +1.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 74.9% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arminia Bielefeld | 1.55 | 60.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Heidenheim | 2.35 | 39.8% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.54 | 60.6% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.36 | 39.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 | 62.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 team goals | 1.75 | 53.4% | -0.4 pts |
| 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.5 team goals | 2.24 | 41.8% | +0.7 pts |
| Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.8 pts |
| 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.33 · 2-1 8.57 · 1-0 10.52 · 1-2 10.73 · 2-2 11.07
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-20 08:04 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).