Mallorca 0–1 Almeria
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.81–2.25.
The brain read
Mallorca created the better chances — the xG read 2.8–2.2 and the shot count agreed (17–11, 5–3 on target). Mallorca's finishing let them down — 0 from 2.8 xG despite 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–1 flatters Almeria — on chances created, Mallorca shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Mallorca or draw | 1.27 | 73.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Double chance Almeria or draw | 1.73 | 54.2% | +1.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Mallorca | 1.46 | 63.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Almeria | 2.55 | 36.4% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 73.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 48.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.23 | 28.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Mallorca over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 45.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Almeria over 1.5 team goals | 3.02 | 30.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Mallorca clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Almeria clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.80 · 1-0 7.09 · 2-1 7.98 · 0-0 9.39 · 2-0 9.52
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-27 08:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).