Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 BST
FC Augsburg
v Bayern München
The model's read
FC Augsburg
25%
match result
Draw
21%
match result
Bayern München
54%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance FC Augsburg or draw | 45.8% |
| Double chance Bayern München or draw | 75.1% |
| Double chance either team | 79.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.2% |
| Both teams to score | 73.1% |
| FC Augsburg over 1.5 team goals | 47.6% |
| Bayern München over 1.5 team goals | 68.6% |
| FC Augsburg clean sheet | 9.3% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 20.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 8.5% · 1-1 7.8% · 2-2 6.8% · 1-3 6.7% · 2-1 5.7%
Model readiness. FC Augsburg has played 4 league games this season, Bayern München 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Bayern München: another match 3d after (2026-10-13).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
FC Augsburg
- 5 of FC Augsburg's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of FC Augsburg's last 6 home league games.
- FC Augsburg have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Bayern München
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 19 league games (W15 D4).
- Bayern München have won 5 of their last 6 away league games.
- Bayern München have averaged 2.5 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- F. Dahmen has made 21 saves in 4 league games this season.
- M. Gregoritsch has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- F. Rieder has 1 goal and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- M. Olise has scored 4 goals in 4 league games this season.
- H. Kane has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- I. Saibari has 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — FC Augsburg
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 2-3 | Werder Bremen (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Bayer Leverkusen (H) | 1.1 - 2.6 |
| 06 Sep | W | 4-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt (A) | 1.1 - 2.2 |
| 30 Aug | W | 3-0 | FC Schalke 04 (H) | 3.5 - 1.5 |
| 16 May | L | 0-4 | Union Berlin (A) | 0.6 - 3.7 |
| 09 May | W | 3-1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) | 2.6 - 1.1 |
Recent form — Bayern München
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | W | 7-0 | Union Berlin (H) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 2-1 | SV Elversberg (A) | 2.8 - 0.9 |
| 10 Sep | W | 5-0 | Bodo/Glimt (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | FC Schalke 04 (A) | 1.9 - 0.2 |
| 28 Aug | W | 5-1 | VfB Stuttgart (H) | 3.9 - 0.9 |
| 16 May | W | 5-1 | 1. FC Köln (H) | 3.0 - 1.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
FC Augsburg
-0.21
xG diff/game · 1.92 for, 2.13 against
Bayern München
+2.23
xG diff/game · 2.90 for, 0.67 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2.333 | 9–3 | DWW |
| Bayern München | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 14–2 | WWDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Bayern München | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-1-0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: FC Augsburg 2 wins, 0 draws, Bayern München 8 wins — 4.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Bayern München | 1-2 | FC Augsburg |
| 30 Aug 25 | FC Augsburg | 2-3 | Bayern München |