Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 BST
Bayern München
v RB Leipzig
The model's read
Bayern München
60%
match result
Draw
19%
match result
RB Leipzig
21%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Bayern München or draw | 78.9% |
| Double chance RB Leipzig or draw | 39.7% |
| Double chance either team | 81.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63.1% |
| Both teams to score | 75.6% |
| Bayern München over 1.5 team goals | 75.5% |
| RB Leipzig over 1.5 team goals | 48.4% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 19.7% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 6.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 7.8% · 3-1 7.1% · 2-2 6.3% · 1-1 6.3% · 3-2 5.7%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bayern München
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 20 league games (W15 D5).
- Bayern München have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- 6 of Bayern München's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Bayern München have averaged 4.7 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
RB Leipzig
- 5 of RB Leipzig's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of RB Leipzig's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- M. Olise has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- H. Kane has 3 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- I. Saibari has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- M. Vandevoordt has made 25 saves in 5 league games this season.
- A. Nusa has 3 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- C. Nkunku has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Bayern München
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | D | 2-2 | FC Augsburg (A) | 5.1 - 2.5 |
| 18 Sep | W | 7-0 | Union Berlin (H) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 2-1 | SV Elversberg (A) | 2.8 - 0.9 |
| 10 Sep | W | 5-0 | Bodo/Glimt (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | FC Schalke 04 (A) | 1.9 - 0.2 |
| 28 Aug | W | 5-1 | VfB Stuttgart (H) | 3.9 - 0.9 |
Recent form — RB Leipzig
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | W | 6-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt (H) | 4.1 - 1.5 |
| 20 Sep | L | 0-2 | Bayer Leverkusen (A) | 1.0 - 2.3 |
| 13 Sep | W | 5-0 | Hamburger SV (H) | 2.4 - 1.1 |
| 10 Sep | L | 1-4 | Como (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-3 | Werder Bremen (A) | 1.5 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) | 4.0 - 1.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Bayern München
+2.33
xG diff/game · 3.45 for, 1.11 against
RB Leipzig
+1.21
xG diff/game · 2.59 for, 1.39 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 14–2 | WWDW |
| RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 9–3 | WLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 5.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| RB Leipzig | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 1.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Bayern München 5 wins, 3 draws, RB Leipzig 2 wins — 4.2 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 26 | RB Leipzig | 1-5 | Bayern München |
| 22 Aug 25 | Bayern München | 6-0 | RB Leipzig |