Fixture · Serie B · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST
Padova
v Virtus Entella
The model's read
Padova
37%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Virtus Entella
33%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Padova or draw | 67.3% |
| Double chance Virtus Entella or draw | 63.0% |
| Double chance either team | 69.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.8% |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% |
| Padova over 1.5 team goals | 35.0% |
| Virtus Entella over 1.5 team goals | 31.8% |
| Padova clean sheet | 31.8% |
| Virtus Entella clean sheet | 29.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.4% · 0-0 10.5% · 1-0 10.1% · 0-1 9.3% · 2-1 8.1%
Model readiness. Padova has played 5 league games this season, Virtus Entella 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Padova
- Only 0 of Padova's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Padova's last 6 home league games.
- Padova have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home league games.
Virtus Entella
- Virtus Entella are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W1 D3).
- Only 1 of Virtus Entella's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Recent form — Padova
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 1-2 | Palermo (A) | 1.2 - 2.5 |
| 12 Sep | W | 1-0 | Ascoli (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | L | 1-3 | Cremonese (A) | — |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Hellas Verona (H) | 0.9 - 1.7 |
| 23 Aug | W | 1-0 | Pisa (A) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 08 May | W | 4-3 | Cesena (A) | 1.8 - 2.3 |
Recent form — Virtus Entella
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Juve Stabia (H) | 1.3 - 1.0 |
| 19 Sep | D | 0-0 | Cremonese (A) | 1.0 - 1.0 |
| 11 Sep | W | 4-1 | Pisa (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Vicenza Virtus (H) | — |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-2 | Cesena (H) | 0.7 - 0.5 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-1 | Sudtirol (A) | 0.4 - 0.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Padova
-0.89
xG diff/game · 1.05 for, 1.93 against
Virtus Entella
+0.06
xG diff/game · 0.86 for, 0.80 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | Serie B | 2026/27 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 4–4 | WLDW |
| Virtus Entella | Serie B | 2026/27 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 7–6 | WDLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 1.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Virtus Entella | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 4 meetings: Padova 2 wins, 0 draws, Virtus Entella 2 wins — 2.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | Virtus Entella | 1-0 | Padova |
| 21 Sep 25 | Padova | 2-1 | Virtus Entella |