Virtus Entella 0–1 Mantova
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.37–1.01.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Virtus Entella to win (40%); it finished with Mantova to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 30% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Virtus Entella created the better chances — the xG read 1.4–1 and the shot count agreed (15–7, 4–3 on target). Virtus Entella got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 4). Virtus Entella's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.4 xG despite 4 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–1 flatters Mantova — on chances created, Virtus Entella shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Virtus Entella 3-5-2
- 5 N. Squizzato (M)
- 6 A. Tiritiello (D)
- 9 Giacomo Corona (F)
- 11 Bernat Guiu (F)
- 12 E. Torrielli (G)
- 23 L. Parodi (D)
- 24 A. Franzoni (M)
- 26 Stefano Di Mario (M)
- 27 M. Alborghetti (D)
- 80 L. Benedetti (M)
- 94 F. Mezzoni (M)
Bench: F. Del Frate, L. Cuppone, Lucas Felippe, Gabriele Costa, T. Annoni, Marwane Kritta, M. Motolese, N. Previtali, Matteo Tassara, M. Tirelli, R. Turicchia, L. Vignali
Mantova 3-4-2-1
- 5 B. Tomašević (D)
- 8 R. Ilie (M)
- 9 E. Gliozzi (F)
- 19 F. Ruocco (M)
- 21 S. Trimboli (M)
- 22 F. Bardi (G)
- 25 L. Ignacchiti (M)
- 27 A. Castellini (D)
- 29 S. Cella (D)
- 50 F. Benaissa-Yahia (M)
- 58 Tommaso Del Lungo (M)
Bench: D. Wieser, D. Bragantini, I. Cajazzo, L. Gemello, J. Mboyo, R. Kouda, E. Košpo, A. Meroni, N. Radaelli, M. Spinaccè, F. Vesentini, V. Vlahović
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Virtus Entella or draw | 1.33 | 70.8% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance Mantova or draw | 1.61 | 58.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Virtus Entella | 1.59 | 58.5% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Mantova | 2.24 | 41.5% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 47.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.48 | 26.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.76 | 53.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Virtus Entella over 1.5 team goals | 2.24 | 41.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Mantova over 1.5 team goals | 2.85 | 32.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Virtus Entella clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Mantova clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.99 · 1-0 7.33 · 2-1 8.79 · 0-0 8.89 · 0-1 9.07
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-24 12:33 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr 26 | Mantova | 1-0 | Virtus Entella |
| 14 Sep 25 | Virtus Entella | 1-0 | Mantova |