Virtus Entella 1–1 Avellino
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.61–0.88.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Virtus Entella to win (46%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 30% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.9, shots 11–17 with 5–2 on target. Avellino got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 4) and Avellino held 64% of the ball. A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Virtus Entella 3-5-2
- 3 N. Previtali (D)
- 5 N. Squizzato (M)
- 6 A. Tiritiello (D)
- 8 L. Vignali (M)
- 10 L. Cuppone (F)
- 17 M. Tirelli (F)
- 18 T. Annoni (M)
- 22 F. Del Frate (G)
- 24 A. Franzoni (M)
- 26 Stefano Di Mario (M)
- 27 M. Alborghetti (D)
Bench: Giacomo Corona, L. Benedetti, Gabriele Costa, Lucas Felippe, Bernat Guiu, Marwane Kritta, I. Marconi, F. Mezzoni, M. Motolese, Matteo Tassara, E. Torrielli, R. Turicchia
Avellino 3-5-2
- 2 F. Missori (M)
- 4 A. Izzo (D)
- 8 L. Di Maggio (M)
- 14 T. Biasci (F)
- 16 G. Faticanti (M)
- 23 M. Venturi (D)
- 24 D. Sounas (M)
- 27 B. Moruzzi (M)
- 50 T. Martinelli (G)
- 56 P. Enrici (D)
- 99 A. Favilli (F)
Bench: M. Sala, R. Russo, L. Pandolfi, L. Palmiero, M. Palumbo, A. Iannarilli, A. Di Bitonto, W. Cheddira, T. Cancellotti, M. Besaggio, E. Adamo, L. Šimić
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Virtus Entella or draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance Avellino or draw | 1.74 | 54.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Virtus Entella | 1.45 | 64.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Avellino | 2.62 | 35.6% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 69.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 44.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.76 | 24.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.86 | 49.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Virtus Entella over 1.5 team goals | 2.18 | 42.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Avellino over 1.5 team goals | 3.35 | 27.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Virtus Entella clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Avellino clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.88 · 1-0 6.36 · 0-0 8.23 · 2-1 8.40 · 2-0 9.20
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-27 18:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Virtus Entella | 1-2 | Avellino |
| 27 Sep 25 | Avellino | 2-0 | Virtus Entella |