Sampdoria 2–0 Virtus Entella
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.86–0.80.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Sampdoria to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 39% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.9–0.8, shots 6–13 with 3–3 on target. Virtus Entella got into the box far more often (8 shots inside it to 5) and Virtus Entella held 62% of the ball. Sampdoria's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 3 of 6 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Sampdoria 4-3-2-1
- 3 S. Gartenmann (D)
- 6 L. Henderson (M)
- 7 M. Cicconi (D)
- 11 T. Begić (M)
- 12 Andrey Krastev (G)
- 15 F. Delli Carri (D)
- 16 Y. Verschaeren (M)
- 28 O. Abildgaard (M)
- 43 K. Mbabu (D)
- 45 A. Makoumbou (M)
- 99 G. Tutino (F)
Bench: A. Ferrari, S. Esposito, Gerald Donegà, K. Diop, L. Insigne, Yann Karamoh, S. Massolo, L. Mezzotero, L. Ravanelli, P. Vindahl
Virtus Entella 3-5-2
- 5 N. Squizzato (M)
- 6 A. Tiritiello (D)
- 8 L. Vignali (D)
- 11 Bernat Guiu (F)
- 17 M. Tirelli (F)
- 22 F. Del Frate (G)
- 24 A. Franzoni (M)
- 26 Stefano Di Mario (M)
- 27 M. Alborghetti (D)
- 80 L. Benedetti (M)
- 94 F. Mezzoni (M)
Bench: T. Annoni, Gabriele Costa, L. Cuppone, N. Previtali, R. Turicchia, E. Torrielli, M. Motolese, I. Marconi, Marwane Kritta, Lucas Felippe, F. D'Alterio, Giacomo Corona
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sampdoria or draw | 1.32 | 70.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Double chance Virtus Entella or draw | 1.58 | 58.9% | +2.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sampdoria | 1.60 | 58.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Virtus Entella | 2.22 | 41.8% | +2.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 68.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 43.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.94 | 23.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.86 | 49.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Sampdoria over 1.5 team goals | 2.39 | 39.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Virtus Entella over 1.5 team goals | 3.08 | 30.2% | +0.6 pts |
| Sampdoria clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Virtus Entella clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.78 · 1-0 6.62 · 0-0 7.87 · 0-1 8.27 · 2-1 9.14
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 18:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 26 | Sampdoria | 1-1 | Virtus Entella |
| 17 Oct 25 | Virtus Entella | 3-1 | Sampdoria |