SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Holstein Kiel
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.79–1.25.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 46% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Holstein Kiel created the better chances — the xG read 0.8–1.2 and the shot count agreed (10–14, 2–4 on target). Holstein Kiel got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 7). Holstein Kiel's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.2 xG despite 4 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–0 flatters SpVgg Greuther Fürth — on chances created, Holstein Kiel shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-2-3-1
- 1 Florian Hellstern (G)
- 6 S. Bansé (M)
- 8 S. Appelkamp (M)
- 10 Ole Pohlmann (M)
- 13 P. Will (M)
- 22 J. Heuer (D)
- 23 J. Dehm (D)
- 27 G. Itter (D)
- 30 F. Klaus (M)
- 34 Hendry Aron Blank (D)
- 42 O. Sillah (F)
Bench: Lukas Reich, D. Srbeny, J. Siebatcheu, Olgherto Balliu, D. Arifi, F. Ademi, A. Keller, K. Keresztes, Silas Joel Prüfrock
Holstein Kiel 4-4-2
- 1 T. Weiner (G)
- 5 N. Madsen (D)
- 9 G. Kvilitaia (F)
- 10 J. Therkelsen (M)
- 13 I. Nekić (D)
- 15 K. Davidsen (M)
- 19 P. Harres (F)
- 20 A. Kaprálik (M)
- 28 J. Meffert (M)
- 32 H. Sekine (D)
- 40 Leon Parduzi (D)
Bench: G. de Regt, F. Alidou, G. Balzi, A. Kelati, Lio Rothenhagen, S. Schonlau, J. Tolkin, I. Ugoh, D. Zec
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw | 1.48 | 63.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw | 1.49 | 62.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1.86 | 50.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Holstein Kiel | 1.87 | 49.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.1% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 60.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.38 | 39.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.46 | 63.5% | -0.1 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals | 1.99 | 46.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Holstein Kiel over 1.5 team goals | 1.99 | 46.9% | +0.3 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Holstein Kiel clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.06 · 2-1 9.31 · 1-2 9.51 · 2-2 10.67 · 1-0 11.29
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-01 12:26 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Holstein Kiel | 1-2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
| 24 Aug 25 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 0-2 | Holstein Kiel |