Wrexham
v Middlesbrough
← Back to the Wed 04 Nov board
On the record: Wrexham under 0.5 goals @ 3.01 — provisional — it counts only if it still clears the pick test once the line-ups are in. Paper only, nothing staked.
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 15% | 22% | -7 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | +0 |
| Middlesbrough | 60% | 54% | +6 |
Most likely scorelines: 0-2 11.6% · 1-1 11.6% · 0-1 11.6% · 1-2 9.8% · 0-0 7.9%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Wrexham or draw | 2.02 | 46.3% | -2.5 pts | 39.8% | -6.5 |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 1.21 | 77.5% | +2.1 pts | 84.5% | +7.0 |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.2% | +0.4 pts | 75.7% | -0.5 |
| Draw no bet — Wrexham | 3.18 | 29.3% | -3.1 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Middlesbrough | 1.32 | 70.7% | +3.1 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.0% | -0.1 pts | 75.9% | -2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.63 | 57.7% | +0.5 pts | 50.3% | -7.4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.55 | 36.6% | -0.0 pts | 28.3% | -8.3 |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 57.7% | -0.7 pts | 48.8% | -8.8 |
| Wrexham over 1.5 team goals | 2.86 | 32.5% | -1.4 pts | 20.5% | -12.0 |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 1.66 | 56.1% | +1.2 pts | 55.1% | -1.0 |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts | 15.8% | -1.4 |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts | 43.3% | +7.8 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.34 · 1-2 7.86 · 0-1 8.44 · 0-2 9.30 · 1-3 12.43
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:03 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- Wrexham under 1.0 goals at 1.84 — model 69%, market 50% (margin removed): a 18-point gap.
- Wrexham under 0.5 goals at 2.81 — model 44%, market 33% (margin removed): a 11-point gap.
- under 3.0 goals at 1.73 — model 64%, market 54% (margin removed): a 10-point gap.
8 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
Rotation risk — Wrexham: another match 2d after (2026-11-07).
Rotation risk — Middlesbrough: another match 2d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Wrexham
- Wrexham have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Wrexham's last 6 home league games.
Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 11 league games (W7 D4).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Middlesbrough's last 6 away league games.
- Middlesbrough have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- A. Patterson has made 32 saves in 13 league games this season.
- K. Moore has scored 5 goals in 13 league games this season.
- Daniel Edward Peter Imray has 1 goal and 3 assists in 12 league games this season.
- W. Lankshear has scored 13 goals in 13 league games this season.
- R. Vítek has made 25 saves in 13 league games this season.
- A. Cozier-Duberry has 3 goals and 5 assists in 9 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Wrexham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | L | 0-1 | Sheffield Utd (A) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
| 24 Oct | L | 0-2 | Blackburn (A) | 1.7 - 1.6 |
| 17 Oct | W | 4-1 | Preston (H) | 2.0 - 0.8 |
| 13 Oct | L | 1-2 | West Brom (H) | 0.5 - 1.0 |
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Derby (A) | 1.3 - 0.6 |
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Southampton (H) | 0.5 - 2.1 |
Middlesbrough
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 3-0 | Charlton (H) | 1.7 - 0.4 |
| 23 Oct | W | 5-1 | Bolton (A) | 4.2 - 0.9 |
| 17 Oct | D | 2-2 | Cardiff (H) | 2.8 - 0.9 |
| 13 Oct | W | 3-2 | Stoke City (A) | 2.6 - 0.7 |
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | Wolves (H) | 1.0 - 0.6 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Birmingham (A) | 2.1 - 1.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | Championship | 2026/27 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 1.077 | 15–19 | LLWLD |
| Middlesbrough | Championship | 2026/27 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 2.154 | 30–17 | WWDWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-2-2 | 1.7 / 1.3 | 0 |
| Middlesbrough | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-2-1 | 2.2 / 1.3 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 2 meetings: Wrexham 0 wins, 2 draws, Middlesbrough 0 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | Wrexham | 2-2 | Middlesbrough |
| 25 Oct 25 | Middlesbrough | 1-1 | Wrexham |