Fixture · Championship · Fri 06 Nov 2026, 20:00 GMT
Derby
v Bolton
The model's read
Derby
42%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Bolton
32%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Derby or draw | 67.9% |
| Double chance Bolton or draw | 58.1% |
| Double chance either team | 74.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 49.2% |
| Bolton over 1.5 team goals | 41.7% |
| Derby clean sheet | 24.0% |
| Bolton clean sheet | 19.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.9% · 2-1 9.0% · 1-2 7.7% · 1-0 6.5% · 2-2 6.4%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Derby
- Derby are winless in their last 9 league games (D3 L6).
- Derby have not won any of their last 6 home league games (D2 L4).
- Derby have conceded in each of their last 9 league games.
Bolton
- Bolton are winless in their last 3 league games (D1 L2).
Players in form
- J. Widell Zetterström has made 43 saves in 9 league games this season.
- B. Clark has scored 3 goals in 13 league games this season.
- S. Szmodics has scored 3 goals in 12 league games this season.
- G. Bazunu has made 29 saves in 10 league games this season.
- S. Dalby has scored 5 goals in 13 league games this season.
- T. Gale has scored 3 goals in 13 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Derby
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 1-4 | Millwall (A) | 1.3 - 4.2 |
| 24 Oct | D | 1-1 | Sheffield Utd (A) | 1.1 - 2.5 |
| 17 Oct | L | 0-1 | Stoke City (H) | 1.1 - 0.6 |
| 14 Oct | L | 1-4 | QPR (A) | 0.9 - 1.6 |
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Wrexham (H) | 0.6 - 1.3 |
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
Bolton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 2-3 | Bristol City (H) | 1.3 - 3.2 |
| 23 Oct | L | 1-5 | Middlesbrough (H) | 0.9 - 4.2 |
| 17 Oct | D | 0-0 | Southampton (A) | 1.2 - 1.9 |
| 13 Oct | W | 3-1 | Wolves (A) | 1.6 - 2.3 |
| 10 Oct | L | 1-2 | Stoke City (H) | 3.0 - 0.7 |
| 20 Sep | W | 4-3 | Norwich (A) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Derby
-0.92
xG diff/game · 0.98 for, 1.90 against
Bolton
-0.56
xG diff/game · 1.32 for, 1.88 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | Championship | 2026/27 | 23 | 13 | 7 | 0.538 | 11–25 | LDLLD |
| Bolton | Championship | 2026/27 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 1.077 | 18–26 | LLDWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-2-4 | 0.7 / 1.7 | 0 |
| Bolton | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-2-2 | 1.5 / 1.8 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Derby 6 wins, 2 draws, Bolton 2 wins — 2.3 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.