Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 07 Nov 2026, 14:30 GMT
FSV Mainz 05
v Bayern München
The model's read
FSV Mainz 05
16%
match result
Draw
17%
match result
Bayern München
67%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 33.1% |
| Double chance Bayern München or draw | 83.7% |
| Double chance either team | 83.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 64.4% |
| Both teams to score | 73.7% |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 43.5% |
| Bayern München over 1.5 team goals | 79.2% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 5.3% |
| Bayern München clean sheet | 22.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 7.7% · 1-3 7.5% · 1-1 5.8% · 2-2 5.7% · 2-3 5.6%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
FSV Mainz 05
- FSV Mainz 05 have not won any of their last 6 home league games (D1 L5).
- 5 of FSV Mainz 05's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of FSV Mainz 05's last 6 home league games.
Bayern München
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 23 league games (W17 D6).
- Both teams have scored in each of Bayern München's last 4 league games.
- Bayern München have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- P. Tietz has scored 5 goals in 8 league games this season.
- A. Caci has 3 goals and 3 assists in 8 league games this season.
- S. Becker has 2 goals and 4 assists in 8 league games this season.
- H. Kane has 4 goals and 6 assists in 8 league games this season.
- M. Olise has 6 goals and 3 assists in 8 league games this season.
- L. Díaz has scored 4 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
FSV Mainz 05
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | L | 1-4 | SV Elversberg (A) | 1.2 - 1.0 |
| 24 Oct | L | 2-3 | Werder Bremen (H) | 1.7 - 2.6 |
| 17 Oct | W | 1-0 | FC Schalke 04 (A) | 1.5 - 0.3 |
| 10 Oct | L | 3-4 | Bayer Leverkusen (H) | 2.9 - 1.7 |
| 19 Sep | W | 4-3 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) | 2.8 - 3.2 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-3 | Eintracht Frankfurt (H) | 2.1 - 2.0 |
Bayern München
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | D | 2-2 | Borussia Dortmund (H) | 4.2 - 0.7 |
| 25 Oct | W | 3-1 | SC Freiburg (A) | 3.0 - 1.1 |
| 21 Oct | D | 2-2 | Arsenal (H) | 2.5 - 1.4 |
| 17 Oct | W | 6-1 | RB Leipzig (H) | 3.8 - 0.9 |
| 13 Oct | D | 3-3 | Viking (A) | 3.6 - 0.6 |
| 10 Oct | D | 2-2 | FC Augsburg (A) | 5.1 - 2.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
FSV Mainz 05
+0.56
xG diff/game · 2.04 for, 1.48 against
Bayern München
+2.64
xG diff/game · 3.57 for, 0.93 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 1.25 | 17–17 | LLWLW |
| Bayern München | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 2.25 | 27–8 | DWWDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-1-3 | 1.5 / 2.5 | 1 |
| Bayern München | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 2-2-0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 2 wins, 1 draws, Bayern München 7 wins — 5.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3-4 | Bayern München |
| 14 Dec 25 | Bayern München | 2-2 | FSV Mainz 05 |