Fixture · Premier League · Sat 07 Nov 2026, 17:30 GMT
Nottingham Forest
v Manchester City
The model's read
Nottingham Forest
38%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Manchester City
36%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw | 64.4% |
| Double chance Manchester City or draw | 61.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 team goals | 46.4% |
| Manchester City over 1.5 team goals | 44.4% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 22.2% |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 20.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.0% · 2-1 8.6% · 1-2 8.2% · 2-2 6.4% · 1-0 6.2%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Manchester City: another match 3d before (2026-11-04).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Nottingham Forest
- Nottingham Forest are winless in their last 5 league games (D1 L4).
- Nottingham Forest have not won any of their last 6 home league games (D3 L3).
- Only 0 of Nottingham Forest's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Nottingham Forest have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Manchester City
- Manchester City have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- M. Sels has made 17 saves in 9 league games this season.
- D. Ndoye has scored 2 goals in 9 league games this season.
- M. Gibbs-White has 1 goal and 2 assists in 8 league games this season.
- E. Haaland has scored 9 goals in 9 league games this season.
- G. Donnarumma has made 23 saves in 9 league games this season.
- R. Cherki has scored 4 goals in 9 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Nottingham Forest
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 0-2 | Brentford (A) | 0.9 - 0.5 |
| 23 Oct | D | 1-1 | Ipswich (A) | 2.3 - 0.5 |
| 18 Oct | L | 0-1 | Arsenal (H) | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| 11 Oct | L | 1-3 | Crystal Palace (A) | 3.0 - 2.4 |
| 19 Sep | L | 0-1 | Coventry (H) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Aston Villa (A) | 2.3 - 0.8 |
Manchester City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 0-1 | Brighton (H) | 2.0 - 1.0 |
| 24 Oct | L | 1-2 | Aston Villa (A) | 1.8 - 0.6 |
| 20 Oct | W | 5-1 | AEK Athens FC (H) | 2.9 - 0.8 |
| 17 Oct | W | 3-2 | Ipswich (H) | 3.6 - 1.7 |
| 14 Oct | L | 2-4 | Paris Saint Germain (H) | 2.6 - 1.9 |
| 11 Oct | W | 3-0 | Liverpool (A) | 1.4 - 0.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Nottingham Forest
+0.53
xG diff/game · 1.54 for, 1.01 against
Manchester City
+0.79
xG diff/game · 2.07 for, 1.27 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2026/27 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 0.667 | 6–12 | LDLLL |
| Manchester City | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 2.333 | 20–10 | LLWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-3 | 0.0 / 0.8 | 1 |
| Manchester City | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 3-0-1 | 2.3 / 0.8 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 9 meetings: Nottingham Forest 1 wins, 2 draws, Manchester City 6 wins — 2.78 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 26 | Manchester City | 2-2 | Nottingham Forest |
| 27 Dec 25 | Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | Manchester City |