Premier League
The Premier League through our xG model: the table underneath the table, our honest record on it, who plays next, and who is in form. Rebuilt from live data twice an hour. Not tips — a public test. This season.
xG ratings — the table underneath the table
Ranked by chance quality (xG difference per match), not by results. Every column sorts; hover a header for what it means.
On chance quality alone, Arsenal were the best side here (+0.85 xG difference per game). Brighton scored +7.0 goals more than their chances were worth, the biggest gap in the division. Arsenal collected +6.5 points more than those chances deserved. Gaps like that usually shrink over time, which is why sides at the top of them often fall away.
| # | Team | Pld | W-D-L | Pts | xPts | Pts +/- | GF | GA | xGF/g | xGA/g | xG diff | G vs xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 24 | 17.5 | +6.5 | 14 | 5 | 1.67 | 0.81 | +0.85 | -1.0 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 21 | 16.9 | +4.1 | 20 | 10 | 2.07 | 1.27 | +0.79 | +1.4 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 12 | 15.2 | -3.2 | 14 | 13 | 1.79 | 1.13 | +0.66 | -2.1 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6 | 15.1 | -9.1 | 6 | 12 | 1.54 | 1.01 | +0.53 | -7.9 |
| 5 | Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 19 | 14.5 | +4.5 | 24 | 7 | 1.89 | 1.45 | +0.43 | +7.0 |
| 6 | Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 14 | 12.6 | +1.4 | 16 | 9 | 1.61 | 1.37 | +0.23 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9 | 13.4 | -4.4 | 9 | 11 | 1.54 | 1.33 | +0.21 | -4.9 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 15 | 13.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 9 | 1.36 | 1.18 | +0.18 | -1.3 |
| 9 | Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 12 | 13.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 10 | 1.28 | 1.14 | +0.14 | -1.6 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 16 | 12.1 | +3.9 | 19 | 15 | 1.41 | 1.43 | -0.02 | +6.3 |
| 11 | Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 9 | 1.35 | 1.44 | -0.08 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11 | 11.7 | -0.7 | 9 | 8 | 1.24 | 1.32 | -0.08 | -2.1 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 7 | 10.8 | -3.8 | 10 | 15 | 1.50 | 1.67 | -0.16 | -3.5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 5 | 12.1 | -7.1 | 7 | 17 | 1.45 | 1.72 | -0.26 | -6.1 |
| 15 | Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 11 | 10 | 1.08 | 1.47 | -0.39 | +1.3 |
| 16 | Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 | 12 | 15 | 1.19 | 1.71 | -0.52 | +1.3 |
| 17 | Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 16 | 0.95 | 1.51 | -0.57 | +0.5 |
| 18 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 13 | 1.15 | 1.73 | -0.58 | -0.3 |
| 19 | Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 14 | 18 | 1.34 | 1.93 | -0.60 | +2.0 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | 9 | 21 | 1.23 | 1.99 | -0.77 | -2.0 |
What each column means
- Pld — Matches played
- W-D-L — Wins, draws and losses
- Pts — Actual league points won
- xPts — Expected points — what the chances created and conceded in each match were worth, run through the same model as the rest of the site
- Pts +/- — Actual points minus expected points. Positive means they took more from their chances than the chances deserved — finishing, goalkeeping, or luck
- GF — Goals scored
- GA — Goals conceded
- xGF/g — Expected goals created per match — the quality of chances they made
- xGA/g — Expected goals conceded per match — the quality of chances they allowed
- xG diff — xGF/g minus xGA/g. The honest measure of how good a side has been, regardless of results
- G vs xG — Goals scored minus expected goals. A big positive means clinical finishing or good luck, and it usually drifts back to zero
Our record on the Premier League
10 of 28 fixtures the model called here have read right so far, on 10–18 (4v) settled calls. CLV (did it beat the closing price?) +1.93% (n=32); reference P/L -4.83u. Small sample — the full record has the lot.
Coming up
- Everton v Coventry — Fri 06 Nov · 20:00
- Leeds v Tottenham — Sat 07 Nov · 12:30
- Fulham v Newcastle — Sat 07 Nov · 15:00
- Arsenal v Hull City — Sat 07 Nov · 15:00
- Nottingham Forest v Manchester City — Sat 07 Nov · 17:30
- Brighton v Brentford — Sun 08 Nov · 14:00
- Crystal Palace v Liverpool — Sun 08 Nov · 14:00
- Ipswich v Bournemouth — Sun 08 Nov · 14:00
- Sunderland v Chelsea — Sun 08 Nov · 14:00
- Manchester United v Aston Villa — Sun 08 Nov · 16:30
Each fixture page carries the model’s full market read. The whole board →
Players in form
This season, league games only. Match ratings are the data provider’s, not our model. Descriptive, not predictive.