Fixture · Premier League · Sun 08 Nov 2026, 16:30 GMT
Manchester United
v Aston Villa
The model's read
Manchester United
47%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
Aston Villa
28%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Manchester United or draw | 72.0% |
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 53.1% |
| Double chance either team | 74.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.5% |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% |
| Manchester United over 1.5 team goals | 53.5% |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 39.1% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 25.9% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 16.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.5% · 2-1 9.4% · 1-2 7.1% · 2-0 6.9% · 1-0 6.7%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Manchester United
- Manchester United are winless in their last 7 league games (D4 L3).
- Manchester United have conceded in each of their last 9 league games.
- Manchester United have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Aston Villa
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2).
Players in form
- S. Lammens has made 29 saves in 9 league games this season.
- B. Mbeumo has scored 4 goals in 9 league games this season.
- Bruno Fernandes has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
- Z. Suzuki has made 29 saves in 9 league games this season.
- N. Jackson has scored 5 goals in 8 league games this season.
- J. Manzambi has 2 goals and 3 assists in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Manchester United
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 0-2 | Chelsea (A) | 1.2 - 2.7 |
| 25 Oct | L | 0-3 | Bournemouth (H) | 1.2 - 2.2 |
| 21 Oct | L | 1-4 | Como (A) | 1.1 - 2.1 |
| 18 Oct | D | 1-1 | Leeds (A) | 0.9 - 1.5 |
| 13 Oct | L | 0-2 | Atletico Madrid (A) | 1.0 - 1.5 |
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Tottenham (H) | 0.8 - 1.6 |
Aston Villa
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | D | 1-1 | Fulham (H) | 1.8 - 2.2 |
| 24 Oct | W | 2-1 | Manchester City (H) | 0.6 - 1.8 |
| 21 Oct | W | 3-1 | Viking (H) | 2.8 - 0.8 |
| 17 Oct | W | 1-0 | Newcastle (A) | 1.6 - 1.1 |
| 14 Oct | W | 6-0 | Fenerbahçe (H) | 3.1 - 1.9 |
| 10 Oct | D | 2-2 | Brentford (H) | 1.8 - 1.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Manchester United
-0.16
xG diff/game · 1.50 for, 1.67 against
Aston Villa
-0.58
xG diff/game · 1.15 for, 1.73 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | Premier League | 2026/27 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 0.778 | 10–15 | LLDDD |
| Aston Villa | Premier League | 2026/27 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 1.333 | 10–13 | DWWDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-2 | 1.5 / 1.8 | 0 |
| Aston Villa | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2-1-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Manchester United 6 wins, 2 draws, Aston Villa 2 wins — 3.2 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Manchester United | 3-1 | Aston Villa |
| 21 Dec 25 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Manchester United |