Fixture · La Liga · Sat 07 Nov 2026, 20:00 GMT
Valencia
v Real Madrid
The model's read
Valencia
18%
match result
Draw
24%
match result
Real Madrid
58%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Valencia or draw | 41.6% |
| Double chance Real Madrid or draw | 82.3% |
| Double chance either team | 76.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.0% |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% |
| Valencia over 1.5 team goals | 25.6% |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 57.2% |
| Valencia clean sheet | 14.6% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 37.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.4% · 0-2 10.2% · 1-2 9.9% · 0-1 9.5% · 0-0 6.5%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Valencia
- Valencia have not won any of their last 6 home league games (D2 L4).
- Valencia have scored just 3 goals across their last 6 home league games.
Real Madrid
- Real Madrid have won their last 4 league games.
- 5 of Real Madrid's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- S. Dimitrievski has made 36 saves in 11 league games this season.
- U. Sadiq has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Javi Guerra has 2 assists in 11 league games this season.
- Kylian Mbappé has scored 12 goals in 11 league games this season.
- T. Courtois has made 29 saves in 10 league games this season.
- J. Bellingham has 4 goals and 3 assists in 11 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Valencia
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | W | 1-0 | Elche (A) | 1.0 - 1.3 |
| 24 Oct | L | 1-2 | Villarreal (H) | 1.2 - 1.5 |
| 17 Oct | D | 0-0 | Athletic Club (H) | 1.5 - 0.7 |
| 11 Oct | D | 2-2 | Racing Santander (A) | 1.7 - 1.4 |
| 20 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Sociedad (H) | 1.6 - 2.6 |
| 15 Sep | W | 1-0 | Alaves (A) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
Real Madrid
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | W | 3-0 | Racing Santander (A) | 3.5 - 1.2 |
| 25 Oct | W | 2-1 | Barcelona (A) | 2.0 - 1.3 |
| 21 Oct | W | 4-1 | RB Leipzig (H) | 3.0 - 1.5 |
| 18 Oct | W | 4-1 | Sevilla (H) | 2.3 - 0.8 |
| 14 Oct | W | 4-3 | AS Roma (A) | 1.9 - 1.5 |
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | Villarreal (H) | 1.0 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Valencia
-0.45
xG diff/game · 1.03 for, 1.49 against
Real Madrid
+1.24
xG diff/game · 2.23 for, 0.99 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | La Liga | 2026/27 | 19 | 11 | 9 | 0.818 | 8–17 | WLDDL |
| Real Madrid | La Liga | 2026/27 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 2.455 | 28–10 | WWWWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-2-4 | 0.5 / 1.8 | 2 |
| Real Madrid | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 3-0-2 | 1.6 / 1.4 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Valencia 2 wins, 2 draws, Real Madrid 6 wins — 3.2 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 26 | Valencia | 0-2 | Real Madrid |
| 01 Nov 25 | Real Madrid | 4-0 | Valencia |