La Liga
The La Liga through our xG model: the table underneath the table, our honest record on it, who plays next, and who is in form. Rebuilt from live data twice an hour. Not tips — a public test. This season.
xG ratings — the table underneath the table
Ranked by chance quality (xG difference per match), not by results. Every column sorts; hover a header for what it means.
On chance quality alone, Barcelona were the best side here (+2.48 xG difference per game). Deportivo La Coruna scored +4.6 goals more than their chances were worth, the biggest gap in the division. Real Betis collected +6.6 points more than those chances deserved. Gaps like that usually shrink over time, which is why sides at the top of them often fall away.
| # | Team | Pld | W-D-L | Pts | xPts | Pts +/- | GF | GA | xGF/g | xGA/g | xG diff | G vs xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 5 | 5-0-0 | 15 | 12.4 | +2.6 | 21 | 4 | 3.50 | 1.02 | +2.48 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 5 | 4-0-1 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | 14 | 4 | 2.36 | 0.77 | +1.59 | +2.2 |
| 3 | Osasuna | 5 | 2-1-2 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 8 | 1.55 | 0.94 | +0.60 | -2.7 |
| 4 | Alaves | 5 | 3-1-1 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 5 | 1.53 | 1.11 | +0.41 | +3.4 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 5 | 2-1-2 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | 8 | 5 | 1.09 | 0.79 | +0.30 | +2.5 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 5 | 0-2-3 | 2 | 7.3 | -5.3 | 7 | 10 | 1.66 | 1.56 | +0.11 | -1.3 |
| 7 | Sevilla | 5 | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 8 | 6 | 0.94 | 0.86 | +0.09 | +3.3 |
| 8 | Racing Santander | 5 | 2-1-2 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 9 | 1.40 | 1.33 | +0.07 | +2.0 |
| 9 | Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3-1-1 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 10 | 6 | 1.09 | 1.19 | -0.10 | +4.5 |
| 10 | Levante | 5 | 1-2-2 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 9 | 1.52 | 1.64 | -0.12 | -0.6 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 5 | 2-3-0 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 | 9 | 6 | 0.88 | 1.33 | -0.44 | +4.6 |
| 12 | Malaga | 5 | 0-3-2 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 2 | 8 | 0.94 | 1.40 | -0.46 | -2.7 |
| 13 | Real Betis | 5 | 4-0-1 | 12 | 5.4 | +6.6 | 7 | 6 | 1.60 | 2.14 | -0.54 | -1.0 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 6 | 0-4-2 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 3 | 6 | 0.78 | 1.34 | -0.55 | -1.7 |
| 15 | Getafe | 5 | 1-2-2 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 3 | 6 | 0.71 | 1.29 | -0.58 | -0.5 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2-1-3 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 11 | 0.95 | 1.63 | -0.68 | +0.3 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 1-1-3 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 8 | 14 | 1.26 | 2.01 | -0.75 | +1.7 |
| 18 | Valencia | 5 | 0-1-4 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 | 1 | 10 | 0.77 | 1.56 | -0.79 | -2.8 |
What each column means
- Pld — Matches played
- W-D-L — Wins, draws and losses
- Pts — Actual league points won
- xPts — Expected points — what the chances created and conceded in each match were worth, run through the same model as the rest of the site
- Pts +/- — Actual points minus expected points. Positive means they took more from their chances than the chances deserved — finishing, goalkeeping, or luck
- GF — Goals scored
- GA — Goals conceded
- xGF/g — Expected goals created per match — the quality of chances they made
- xGA/g — Expected goals conceded per match — the quality of chances they allowed
- xG diff — xGF/g minus xGA/g. The honest measure of how good a side has been, regardless of results
- G vs xG — Goals scored minus expected goals. A big positive means clinical finishing or good luck, and it usually drifts back to zero
Our record on the La Liga
5 of 16 fixtures the model called here have read right so far, on 5–11 (3v) settled calls. CLV (did it beat the closing price?) -10.65% (n=13); reference P/L -5.09u. Small sample — the full record has the lot.
Coming up
- Barcelona v Racing Santander — Wed 16 Sep · 20:30
- Levante v Athletic Club — Wed 16 Sep · 20:30
- Real Betis v Getafe — Thu 17 Sep · 18:00
- Malaga v Villarreal — Thu 17 Sep · 20:30
- Espanyol v Elche — Fri 18 Sep · 20:00
- Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano — Sat 19 Sep · 13:00
- Athletic Club v Alaves — Sat 19 Sep · 15:15
- Celta Vigo v Racing Santander — Sat 19 Sep · 17:30
- Sevilla v Barcelona — Sat 19 Sep · 20:00
- Getafe v Malaga — Sun 20 Sep · 13:00
Each fixture page carries the model’s full market read. The whole board →
Players in form
- Raphinha (Barcelona) has 6 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season. — next: v Racing Santander · Wed 16 Sep
This season, league games only. Match ratings are the data provider’s, not our model. Descriptive, not predictive.