La Liga
The La Liga through our xG model: the table underneath the table, our honest record on it, who plays next, and who is in form. Rebuilt from live data twice an hour. Not tips — a public test. This season.
xG ratings — the table underneath the table
Ranked by chance quality (xG difference per match), not by results. Every column sorts; hover a header for what it means.
On chance quality alone, Barcelona were the best side here (+2.36 xG difference per game). Barcelona scored +8.7 goals more than their chances were worth, the biggest gap in the division. Atletico Madrid collected +9.6 points more than those chances deserved. Gaps like that usually shrink over time, which is why sides at the top of them often fall away.
| # | Team | Pld | W-D-L | Pts | xPts | Pts +/- | GF | GA | xGF/g | xGA/g | xG diff | G vs xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 30 | 26.7 | +3.3 | 46 | 12 | 3.39 | 1.03 | +2.36 | +8.7 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 27 | 22.1 | +4.9 | 28 | 10 | 2.23 | 0.99 | +1.24 | +3.5 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 12 | 20.0 | -8.0 | 15 | 15 | 1.93 | 1.05 | +0.88 | -6.2 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 28 | 18.4 | +9.6 | 22 | 8 | 1.58 | 1.07 | +0.51 | +4.6 |
| 5 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 15 | 16.1 | -1.1 | 14 | 10 | 1.46 | 1.18 | +0.29 | -0.6 |
| 6 | Deportivo La Coruna | 11 | 3-5-3 | 14 | 15.1 | -1.1 | 15 | 14 | 1.29 | 1.19 | +0.10 | +0.8 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11 | 14.8 | -3.8 | 11 | 22 | 1.42 | 1.50 | -0.07 | -4.6 |
| 8 | Alaves | 11 | 3-3-5 | 12 | 14.8 | -2.8 | 15 | 17 | 1.22 | 1.34 | -0.12 | +1.6 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 19 | 14.8 | +4.2 | 20 | 20 | 1.48 | 1.65 | -0.17 | +3.7 |
| 10 | Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 | 13 | 14 | 0.96 | 1.14 | -0.18 | +2.5 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 12 | 13.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 10 | 0.93 | 1.18 | -0.24 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 23 | 14.0 | +9.0 | 18 | 15 | 1.56 | 1.80 | -0.24 | +0.8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 12 | 12.5 | -0.5 | 15 | 20 | 1.37 | 1.66 | -0.29 | +1.3 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17 | 13.3 | +3.7 | 17 | 19 | 1.01 | 1.33 | -0.32 | +5.9 |
| 15 | Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 10 | 14.0 | -4.0 | 14 | 18 | 1.27 | 1.69 | -0.43 | +0.1 |
| 16 | Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 9 | 12.4 | -3.4 | 8 | 17 | 1.03 | 1.49 | -0.45 | -3.4 |
| 17 | Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 10 | 12.3 | -2.3 | 16 | 21 | 1.36 | 1.93 | -0.57 | +1.0 |
| 18 | Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 12 | 10.3 | +1.7 | 8 | 16 | 0.69 | 1.32 | -0.62 | +0.4 |
| 19 | Malaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 5 | 9.7 | -4.7 | 8 | 21 | 0.86 | 1.64 | -0.78 | -1.4 |
| 20 | Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11 | 11.7 | -0.7 | 15 | 29 | 1.37 | 2.25 | -0.88 | -0.1 |
What each column means
- Pld — Matches played
- W-D-L — Wins, draws and losses
- Pts — Actual league points won
- xPts — Expected points — what the chances created and conceded in each match were worth, run through the same model as the rest of the site
- Pts +/- — Actual points minus expected points. Positive means they took more from their chances than the chances deserved — finishing, goalkeeping, or luck
- GF — Goals scored
- GA — Goals conceded
- xGF/g — Expected goals created per match — the quality of chances they made
- xGA/g — Expected goals conceded per match — the quality of chances they allowed
- xG diff — xGF/g minus xGA/g. The honest measure of how good a side has been, regardless of results
- G vs xG — Goals scored minus expected goals. A big positive means clinical finishing or good luck, and it usually drifts back to zero
Our record on the La Liga
11 of 37 fixtures the model called here have read right so far, on 11–26 (8v) settled calls. CLV (did it beat the closing price?) -3.96% (n=38); reference P/L -14.69u. Small sample — the full record has the lot.
Coming up
- Sevilla v Alaves — Fri 06 Nov · 20:00
- Malaga v Racing Santander — Sat 07 Nov · 13:00
- Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna — Sat 07 Nov · 15:15
- Osasuna v Athletic Club — Sat 07 Nov · 17:30
- Valencia v Real Madrid — Sat 07 Nov · 20:00
- Elche v Real Betis — Sun 08 Nov · 13:00
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — Sun 08 Nov · 15:15
- Villarreal v Getafe — Sun 08 Nov · 17:30
- Celta Vigo v Levante — Sun 08 Nov · 17:30
- Atletico Madrid v Barcelona — Sun 08 Nov · 20:00
Each fixture page carries the model’s full market read. The whole board →
Players in form
- Álvaro Vallés (Real Betis) has made 46 saves in 11 league games this season. — next: v Borussia Dortmund · Wed 04 Nov
- Raphinha (Barcelona) has 15 goals and 3 assists in 10 league games this season. — next: v Aston Villa · Tue 03 Nov
This season, league games only. Match ratings are the data provider’s, not our model. Descriptive, not predictive.