Fixture · Championship · Sat 07 Nov 2026, 15:00 GMT
Watford
v Middlesbrough
The model's read
Watford
11%
match result
Draw
20%
match result
Middlesbrough
69%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Watford or draw | 31.2% |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 89.1% |
| Double chance either team | 79.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 17.7% |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 63.7% |
| Watford clean sheet | 11.5% |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 46.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 0-2 12.6% · 0-1 10.7% · 1-1 9.7% · 1-2 9.6% · 0-3 9.1%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Middlesbrough: another match 3d before (2026-11-04).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 11 league games (W7 D4).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Middlesbrough's last 6 away league games.
- Middlesbrough have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- F. Ravaglia has made 47 saves in 13 league games this season.
- Amin Nabizada has scored 3 goals in 13 league games this season.
- Iker Bravo has 1 goal and 3 assists in 13 league games this season.
- W. Lankshear has scored 13 goals in 13 league games this season.
- R. Vítek has made 25 saves in 13 league games this season.
- A. Cozier-Duberry has 3 goals and 5 assists in 9 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Watford
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 2-3 | Norwich (A) | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| 24 Oct | L | 0-1 | Wolves (A) | 0.1 - 1.9 |
| 17 Oct | W | 2-0 | Charlton (H) | 2.9 - 1.3 |
| 13 Oct | L | 1-5 | Cardiff (A) | 1.5 - 3.8 |
| 10 Oct | L | 0-4 | Burnley (H) | 0.6 - 1.9 |
| 18 Sep | L | 0-1 | Bristol City (A) | 0.5 - 1.6 |
Middlesbrough
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 3-0 | Charlton (H) | 1.7 - 0.4 |
| 23 Oct | W | 5-1 | Bolton (A) | 4.2 - 0.9 |
| 17 Oct | D | 2-2 | Cardiff (H) | 2.8 - 0.9 |
| 13 Oct | W | 3-2 | Stoke City (A) | 2.6 - 0.7 |
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | Wolves (H) | 1.0 - 0.6 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Birmingham (A) | 2.1 - 1.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Watford
-0.73
xG diff/game · 1.02 for, 1.75 against
Middlesbrough
+1.14
xG diff/game · 2.11 for, 0.96 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | Championship | 2026/27 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 0.846 | 12–23 | LLWLL |
| Middlesbrough | Championship | 2026/27 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 2.154 | 30–17 | WWDWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-1-2 | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1 |
| Middlesbrough | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-2-1 | 2.2 / 1.3 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Watford 5 wins, 1 draws, Middlesbrough 4 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | Middlesbrough | 5-1 | Watford |
| 01 Nov 25 | Watford | 3-0 | Middlesbrough |