Energie Cottbus 3–4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–4; by chance quality the match ran 3.03–1.99.
The brain read
Energie Cottbus created the better chances — the xG read 3–2 and the shot count agreed (23–15, 6–7 on target). Energie Cottbus got into the box far more often (16 shots inside it to 11). SpVgg Greuther Fürth's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2 xG, 7 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 3–4 flatters SpVgg Greuther Fürth — on chances created, Energie Cottbus shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Lotka (G)
- 2 K. Manu (D)
- 7 C. Kinsombi (M)
- 8 Lukas Michelbrink (M)
- 9 L. Copado (F)
- 11 M. Hannemann (M)
- 19 J. Boziaris (M)
- 20 A. Borgmann (D)
- 21 Luca Erlein (D)
- 23 Fousseny Doumbia (D)
- 32 L. Bittencourt (M)
Bench: H. Rorig, R. Malone, T. Ciğerci, T. Campulka, J. Butler, Dmytro Bohdanov, J. Zaydan, K. Kratzsch
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-4-2
- 6 S. Bansé (M)
- 7 D. Srbeny (F)
- 8 S. Appelkamp (M)
- 10 Ole Pohlmann (M)
- 13 P. Will (M)
- 22 J. Heuer (D)
- 23 J. Dehm (D)
- 27 G. Itter (D)
- 29 K. Keresztes (D)
- 30 F. Klaus (F)
Bench: M. Wallentowitz, D. Arifi, A. Keller, N. König, Silas Joel Prüfrock, Lukas Reich, O. Sillah, Jakob Krautkrämer
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw | 1.49 | 62.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw | 1.50 | 62.4% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 74.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Energie Cottbus | 1.85 | 50.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1.87 | 49.7% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.8% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 62.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.27 | 41.6% | -0.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.43 | 64.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Energie Cottbus over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.3% | -0.4 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals | 1.93 | 48.3% | +0.0 pts |
| Energie Cottbus clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.9 pts |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.12 · 1-2 9.06 · 2-1 9.11 · 2-2 10.46 · 0-1 11.58
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 13:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).