Levante
v Athletic Club
The model's read
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Levante or draw | 75.4% |
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 51.8% |
| Double chance either team | 72.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% |
| Levante over 1.5 team goals | 47.7% |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 29.8% |
| Levante clean sheet | 33.6% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 20.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.0% · 1-0 9.6% · 2-1 9.5% · 2-0 8.7% · 0-0 7.9%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Levante or draw | 1.69 | 55.7% | -1.5 pts | 75.4% | +19.6 |
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 1.32 | 71.4% | +1.2 pts | 51.8% | -19.5 |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.9% | +0.3 pts | 72.8% | -0.1 |
| Draw no bet — Levante | 2.32 | 40.2% | -0.9 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Athletic Club | 1.56 | 59.8% | +0.9 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.6% | +2.4 pts | 76.3% | +0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 52.6% | +2.6 pts | 50.6% | -2.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.92 | 32.2% | +2.4 pts | 28.5% | -3.7 |
| Both teams to score | 1.63 | 57.0% | +2.3 pts | 54.3% | -2.7 |
| Levante over 1.5 team goals | 2.63 | 35.7% | +1.7 pts | 47.7% | +12.0 |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 1.98 | 47.3% | +3.2 pts | 29.8% | -17.5 |
| Levante clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts | 33.6% | +10.2 |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -2.2 pts | 20.1% | -9.0 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.36 · 0-1 8.20 · 1-2 8.36 · 1-0 10.70 · 0-0 10.72
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 18:00 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Levante, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.42 implies a 40% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 66%. A 26-point disagreement.
- Levante, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.32 implies a 40% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 66%. A 26-point disagreement.
- Athletic Club under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.04 implies a 31% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 53%. A 23-point disagreement.
- Levante +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.73 implies a 55% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 75%. A 20-point disagreement.
- Levante or the draw — the market’s price of 1.69 implies a 56% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 75%. A 19-point disagreement.
- Levante winning — the market’s price of 3.34 implies a 28% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 48%. A 19-point disagreement.
13 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Availability and rotation
Levante: 3 recorded — K. Etta Eyong (Missing Fixture), A. Primo (Missing Fixture), H. Sotelo (Missing Fixture)
Athletic Club: 5 recorded — U. Egiluz (Missing Fixture), D. Vivian (Missing Fixture), P. Canales (Missing Fixture), G. Guruzeta (Questionable), I. Williams (Questionable)
Rotation risk — Levante: another match 3d after (2026-09-20).
Rotation risk — Athletic Club: another match 2d after (2026-09-19).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Levante
- Levante have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- Levante have averaged 2.5 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Athletic Club
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
Players in form
- M. Ryan has made 19 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Brugui has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Unai Simón has made 17 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Robert Navarro has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- I. Williams has 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Levante
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | L | 2-4 | Barcelona (H) | 2.4 - 2.6 |
| 06 Sep | D | 0-0 | Malaga (A) | 0.8 - 1.5 |
| 29 Aug | W | 5-2 | Real Betis (H) | 2.8 - 1.9 |
| 24 Aug | D | 0-0 | Osasuna (A) | 1.3 - 0.7 |
| 16 Aug | L | 0-3 | Espanyol (A) | 0.3 - 1.6 |
| 23 May | L | 1-2 | Real Betis (A) | 2.3 - 1.5 |
Recent form — Athletic Club
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Elche (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-0 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.4 - 1.0 |
| 30 Aug | W | 2-0 | Celta Vigo (A) | 2.6 - 0.6 |
| 27 Aug | L | 0-2 | Barcelona (A) | 0.2 - 3.9 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-3 | Sevilla (H) | 0.0 - 0.0 |
| 23 May | L | 2-4 | Real Madrid (A) | 0.8 - 1.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | La Liga | 2026/27 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 7–9 | LDWDL |
| Athletic Club | La Liga | 2026/27 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 7–6 | DWWLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 5.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Athletic Club | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Levante 0 wins, 3 draws, Athletic Club 7 wins — 2.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 26 | Athletic Club | 4-2 | Levante |
| 29 Nov 25 | Levante | 0-2 | Athletic Club |