Market truths
What actually lands.
How often the headline markets have actually come in, league by league — home wins, draws, goals, both teams scoring. Counted from final scores, nothing else, and updated automatically as results settle.
These are base rates, not predictions. A market that has landed in 70%
of matches so far is history, not a promise — rates drift back toward their long-run
level, which is why the played column is on every row. Nothing on this page is a tip.
This season · 2026/27
| League | Pld | Home | Draw | Away | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS | Goals/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 40 | 32% | 35% | 32% | 75% | 52% | 38% | 52% | 2.85 |
| La Liga | 54 | 44% | 26% | 30% | 78% | 56% | 35% | 57% | 2.98 |
| Serie A | 40 | 42% | 15% | 42% | 80% | 57% | 32% | 60% | 3.02 |
| Bundesliga | 27 | 52% | 19% | 30% | 89% | 81% | 63% | 59% | 3.85 |
| Ligue 1 | 36 | 28% | 36% | 36% | 72% | 53% | 36% | 56% | 2.75 |
| Championship | 83 | 41% | 29% | 30% | 78% | 61% | 35% | 65% | 2.83 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 45 | 40% | 24% | 36% | 76% | 69% | 42% | 60% | 3.44 |
| La Liga 2 | 55 | 42% | 24% | 35% | 64% | 38% | 24% | 36% | 2.31 |
| Serie B | 40 | 40% | 25% | 35% | 75% | 50% | 25% | 60% | 2.60 |
| Ligue 2 | 54 | 37% | 37% | 26% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 54% | 2.44 |
| Champions League | 25 | 64% | 8% | 28% | 92% | 80% | 60% | 72% | 3.96 |
| Eredivisie | 22 | 23% | 36% | 41% | 91% | 77% | 64% | 73% | 3.86 |
| Europa League | 12 | 67% | 8% | 25% | 83% | 75% | 42% | 50% | 3.33 |
| Major League Soccer | 45 | 40% | 33% | 27% | 82% | 67% | 38% | 64% | 3.27 |
| Primeira Liga | 24 | 42% | 25% | 33% | 71% | 62% | 33% | 54% | 2.67 |
| Scottish Premiership | 17 | 41% | 18% | 41% | 65% | 53% | 12% | 47% | 2.24 |
Last season · 2025/26 — the baseline
A full season of results for comparison. This is roughly what the rates look like once the sample is big enough to mean something.
| League | Pld | Home | Draw | Away | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS | Goals/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 380 | 43% | 27% | 30% | 79% | 55% | 28% | 56% | 2.75 |
| La Liga | 380 | 49% | 24% | 27% | 78% | 50% | 26% | 57% | 2.69 |
| Serie A | 380 | 39% | 26% | 35% | 70% | 46% | 22% | 45% | 2.43 |
| Bundesliga | 308 | 44% | 25% | 31% | 83% | 64% | 43% | 62% | 3.22 |
| Ligue 1 | 309 | 46% | 25% | 29% | 72% | 53% | 33% | 51% | 2.83 |
| Championship | 557 | 42% | 27% | 32% | 76% | 50% | 25% | 57% | 2.59 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 241 | 45% | 24% | 30% | 80% | 59% | 32% | 60% | 2.92 |
| La Liga 2 | 468 | 44% | 25% | 30% | 71% | 50% | 27% | 56% | 2.63 |
| Serie B | 390 | 45% | 31% | 24% | 75% | 48% | 25% | 53% | 2.55 |
The model's own calls, and how they settle, live on the record.