The model, under the lights
The record right now
Every settled pick, wins and losses alike, lives on the record; the probability calibration is on the calibration page. £0 staked.
Where the model disagrees most
Ranked by the gap between our probability and the market's. A gap is a disagreement, not a tip — early season it is usually the model that is behind. All of today's reads →
Ratings, luck & calibration
Every strand, side by side
All the runs at once, dead ones included. With several strands, one is usually on a run — that is arithmetic, not skill, and it is why they are never shown apart.
| Strand | Run | Best | W-L | Paper P/L | CLV | Beat the close | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Daily Double | 0 | 2 | 11-14 | £-26.86 | -1.2% | 56% of 25 | run dead |
| Daily BTTS | 0 | 2 | 7-10 | £-30.98 | -0.1% | 59% of 17 | run dead |
| Daily Draw | 1 | 1 | 2-7 | £-2.77 | -3.6% | 44% of 9 | run alive · 1 |
| Daily Under | 0 | 3 | 4-9 | £-62.72 | -1.8% | 23% of 13 | run dead |
CLV is the average gap between the price we logged and the closing price, per strand — the same credibility check as the record. A strand that keeps failing to beat the close gets tightened or retired at the weekly review, on that evidence, not on how its run looks.
This season, in the results
Base rates from finished scores only — no model, no odds. The full per-league table is on market truths.
The season in numbers
Who leads each league on the stats we collect — possession, passing, corners, shooting, fouls and bookings. Descriptive only: no model, no odds, no tip, and no bet runs off these. Every rate shows the games behind it.
Discipline & set-pieces, by league
Cards, corners and fouls per team per game — the character of each league. Descriptive colour, not a tip: the Phase-2 cards/corners model isn’t built yet, so nothing here is a bet.
| League | Cards/game | Corners/game | Fouls/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League · 2025/26 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 10.8 |
| La Liga · 2026/27 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 11.6 |
| Serie A · 2025/26 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 12.7 |
| Bundesliga · 2025/26 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 10.4 |
| Ligue 1 · 2025/26 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 12.1 |
| Championship · 2026/27 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 10.4 |
Last completed season until a club has played 5 matches this season, then it switches to 26/27 — the same gate the ratings tiles use, so nothing is crowned on three games.
Players in form
- J. Widell Zetterström (Derby) has made 28 saves in 7 league games this season.
- Raphinha (Barcelona) has 6 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- I. Matanović (SC Freiburg) is averaging a 8.5 match rating over 3 league games this season.
- G. Wickens (Lincoln) has made 26 saves in 7 league games this season.
From the player tracker — the same lines the fixture pages carry.
Team runs
- Burnley have gone 19 matches without a win.
- Both teams have scored in each of 1. FC Köln’s last 13 matches.
- Arsenal have won their last 10 matches.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in 19 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain have scored in 25 straight matches.
- Both teams have scored in each of Eintracht Frankfurt’s last 11 matches.
Current streaks from the results wire — see every finished match on results.
Built from the same figures as the ratings, the luck table, calibration and the record, and rebuilt with them twice an hour — this page cannot say something those pages don't. Descriptive only; nothing here is advice.