Fixture · Serie B · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 16:15 BST
Padova
v Carrarese
The model's read
Padova
39%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Carrarese
32%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Padova or draw | 67.6% |
| Double chance Carrarese or draw | 60.8% |
| Double chance either team | 71.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% |
| Padova over 1.5 team goals | 40.8% |
| Carrarese over 1.5 team goals | 35.7% |
| Padova clean sheet | 28.5% |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 24.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.6% · 2-1 8.7% · 1-0 8.6% · 0-0 8.3% · 1-2 7.7%
Model readiness. Padova has played 5 league games this season, Carrarese 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Padova
50%
market implied · price 1.88 · opened 48%
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.41 · opened 28%
Carrarese
23%
market implied · price 4.07 · opened 24%
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Padova or draw | 1.22 | 76.9% | +1.0 pts | 67.6% | -9.3 |
| Double chance Carrarese or draw | 1.87 | 50.1% | -1.3 pts | 60.8% | +10.8 |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.0% | +0.3 pts | 71.5% | -1.5 |
| Draw no bet — Padova | 1.37 | 68.1% | +2.0 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Carrarese | 2.91 | 31.9% | -2.0 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.3% | +0.1 pts | 75.5% | +1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 50.9% | -0.1 pts | 49.5% | -1.3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.08 | 30.3% | -0.8 pts | 27.6% | -2.7 |
| Both teams to score | 1.72 | 54.1% | -1.0 pts | 55.1% | +1.0 |
| Padova over 1.5 team goals | 1.87 | 49.8% | +0.8 pts | 40.8% | -8.9 |
| Carrarese over 1.5 team goals | 3.12 | 29.9% | -1.3 pts | 35.7% | +5.8 |
| Padova clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +1.7 pts | 28.5% | -6.9 |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +0.0 pts | 24.6% | +3.9 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.38 · 1-0 7.33 · 2-1 8.01 · 2-0 9.31 · 0-0 9.89
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-11 08:06 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Padova
- Only 0 of Padova's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Padova's last 6 home league games.
- Padova have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home league games.
Carrarese
- Carrarese are winless in their last 10 league games (D3 L7).
- Carrarese have lost their last 3 league games.
- Carrarese have failed to score in their last 3 league games.
- Carrarese have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Recent form — Padova
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 1-2 | Palermo (A) | 1.2 - 2.5 |
| 12 Sep | W | 1-0 | Ascoli (H) | 1.0 - 2.0 |
| 06 Sep | L | 1-3 | Cremonese (A) | 1.3 - 2.5 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Hellas Verona (H) | 0.9 - 1.7 |
| 23 Aug | W | 1-0 | Pisa (A) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 08 May | W | 4-3 | Cesena (A) | 1.8 - 2.3 |
Recent form — Carrarese
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | L | 0-1 | Benevento (H) | 0.8 - 1.2 |
| 12 Sep | L | 0-1 | Catanzaro (A) | 0.6 - 2.4 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-1 | Empoli (H) | 0.8 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Ascoli (A) | 1.8 - 1.6 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-2 | Mantova (H) | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| 08 May | L | 1-2 | Virtus Entella (A) | 0.5 - 1.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Padova
-0.98
xG diff/game · 1.08 for, 2.06 against
Carrarese
-0.47
xG diff/game · 0.95 for, 1.42 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | Serie B | 2026/27 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 5–6 | LWLDW |
| Carrarese | Serie B | 2026/27 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 2–6 | LLLDL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 1.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Carrarese | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 2 meetings: Padova 1 wins, 1 draws, Carrarese 0 wins — 0.5 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 26 | Padova | 1-0 | Carrarese |
| 31 Aug 25 | Carrarese | 0-0 | Padova |