Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
Holstein Kiel
v Hertha BSC
The model's read
Holstein Kiel
36%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Hertha BSC
38%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw | 61.8% |
| Double chance Hertha BSC or draw | 63.7% |
| Double chance either team | 74.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.8% |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% |
| Holstein Kiel over 1.5 team goals | 46.8% |
| Hertha BSC over 1.5 team goals | 48.3% |
| Holstein Kiel clean sheet | 19.7% |
| Hertha BSC clean sheet | 20.7% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.5% · 1-2 8.5% · 2-1 8.2% · 2-2 6.7% · 0-1 5.6%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel are winless in their last 15 league games (D6 L9).
- Holstein Kiel have conceded in each of their last 15 league games.
- Holstein Kiel have not won any of their last 6 home league games (D4 L2).
- Both teams scored in 6 of Holstein Kiel's last 6 home league games.
Hertha BSC
- Hertha BSC have won their last 7 league games.
- Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 10 league games (W9 D1).
- Hertha BSC have won 6 of their last 6 away league games.
- Both teams have scored in each of Hertha BSC's last 5 league games.
Players in form
- Phil Harres has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
- Josip Brekalo has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Sebastian Grønning has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Marten Winkler has 1 goal and 2 assists in 2 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Holstein Kiel
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | L | 0-1 | Eintracht Braunschweig (A) | 1.2 - 1.2 |
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | VfL Osnabrück (H) | 2.1 - 1.8 |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-1 | 1. FC Heidenheim (A) | 0.8 - 2.3 |
| 05 Sep | D | 2-2 | 1. FC Nürnberg (H) | 0.7 - 1.8 |
| 30 Aug | L | 0-2 | 1. FC Magdeburg (A) | 2.1 - 0.8 |
| 14 Aug | D | 2-2 | FC St. Pauli (H) | 2.1 - 2.6 |
Recent form — Hertha BSC
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Dynamo Dresden (A) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 3-1 | VfL Osnabrück (A) | 2.1 - 1.7 |
| 06 Sep | W | 2-1 | 1. FC Magdeburg (H) | 1.3 - 0.9 |
| 28 Aug | W | 5-3 | Eintracht Braunschweig (A) | 3.5 - 2.2 |
| 15 Aug | W | 4-1 | 1. FC Heidenheim (H) | 2.0 - 1.0 |
| 07 Aug | W | 1-0 | VfL Bochum (A) | 0.6 - 1.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Holstein Kiel
-0.13
xG diff/game · 1.47 for, 1.61 against
Hertha BSC
+0.54
xG diff/game · 1.91 for, 1.37 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 6–9 | LDLDD |
| Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 15–6 | WWWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | home | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-2-0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Hertha BSC | away | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 3.0 / 1.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 4 meetings: Holstein Kiel 1 wins, 1 draws, Hertha BSC 2 wins — 2.75 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 25 | Holstein Kiel | 0-1 | Hertha BSC |