If you want to know whether someone is actually any good at this, do not look at their profit. Look at whether they beat the closing price.
The closing price is the odds a match settles at immediately before kick-off. By that point every piece of team news is public, every serious opinion has been backed, and the market has absorbed the lot. It is the sharpest, best-informed number that market will ever produce.
If you consistently took a better price than the close, you were ahead of the market. Not lucky — ahead. That is closing line value, and it is the closest thing this field has to an honest scoreboard.
Profit over weeks or months is dominated by variance. You can be right and lose. You can be wrong and win, repeatedly, and post screenshots about it.
Work through it: a bet at even money that genuinely has a 55% chance is a good bet. Over ten of those you would still lose money about a quarter of the time. Over a hundred you would still be behind roughly one time in six. Nobody is judged over a hundred bets. They are judged over the ten that got screenshotted.
Closing line value shows up far faster and lies far less, because it does not depend on whether the ball went in. It depends on whether you were ahead of a market that knew more than you did when it closed.
Beating the close is necessary. It is not sufficient.
Our model beats the close. It has done so across three separate seasons, including one it had never been built on. And it has still lost money in every one of those seasons once the bookmaker's margin and the swings are accounted for.
So we publish the closing line value because it is the honest measure of whether the model is seeing something real. We do not publish it as evidence that following it makes money, because three seasons of testing say it does not.
That distinction is the entire brand. Everyone else collapses it.