Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
Hertha BSC
v SpVgg Greuther Fürth
The model's read
Hertha BSC
54%
match result
Draw
23%
match result
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
23%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Hertha BSC or draw | 77.4% |
| Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw | 46.1% |
| Double chance either team | 76.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% |
| Hertha BSC over 1.5 team goals | 59.6% |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals | 35.7% |
| Hertha BSC clean sheet | 28.5% |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 13.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.6% · 2-1 9.7% · 2-0 7.7% · 1-0 6.7% · 3-1 6.5%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Hertha BSC
- Hertha BSC have won their last 7 league games.
- Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 10 league games (W9 D1).
- Both teams have scored in each of Hertha BSC's last 5 league games.
- 5 of Hertha BSC's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth are winless in their last 3 league games (D2 L1).
- Both teams scored in 5 of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 6 away league games.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Players in form
- Josip Brekalo has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Sebastian Grønning has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Marten Winkler has 1 goal and 2 assists in 2 league games this season.
- F. Klaus has scored 5 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Florian Hellstern has made 9 saves in 2 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Hertha BSC
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Dynamo Dresden (A) | — |
| 13 Sep | W | 3-1 | VfL Osnabrück (A) | 2.1 - 1.7 |
| 06 Sep | W | 2-1 | 1. FC Magdeburg (H) | 1.3 - 0.9 |
| 28 Aug | W | 5-3 | Eintracht Braunschweig (A) | 3.5 - 2.2 |
| 15 Aug | W | 4-1 | 1. FC Heidenheim (H) | 2.0 - 1.0 |
| 07 Aug | W | 1-0 | VfL Bochum (A) | 0.6 - 1.0 |
Recent form — SpVgg Greuther Fürth
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | D | 1-1 | 1. FC Magdeburg (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | VfL Bochum (A) | 1.6 - 1.5 |
| 06 Sep | L | 0-1 | 1. FC Heidenheim (H) | 0.6 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 4-3 | Energie Cottbus (A) | 2.0 - 3.0 |
| 15 Aug | L | 2-4 | 1. FC Nürnberg (H) | 2.8 - 1.2 |
| 09 Aug | D | 1-1 | FC St. Pauli (A) | 1.6 - 1.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Hertha BSC
+0.54
xG diff/game · 1.91 for, 1.37 against
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
-0.00
xG diff/game · 1.71 for, 1.71 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 15–6 | WWWWW |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 9–11 | DDLWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha BSC | home | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | away | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-2-0 | 2.0 / 1.7 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 8 meetings: Hertha BSC 5 wins, 1 draws, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 wins — 3.38 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Dec 25 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 3-3 | Hertha BSC |