Fixture · La Liga · Sat 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 BST
Rayo Vallecano
v Athletic Club
The model's read
Rayo Vallecano
40%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Athletic Club
31%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 69.2% |
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 59.7% |
| Double chance either team | 71.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.8% |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 40.4% |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 33.2% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 30.6% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 25.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.8% · 1-0 9.4% · 0-0 8.9% · 2-1 8.7% · 0-1 7.8%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Rayo Vallecano
- Both teams have scored in each of Rayo Vallecano's last 8 league games.
- Rayo Vallecano have conceded in each of their last 8 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Rayo Vallecano's last 6 home league games.
- Rayo Vallecano have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Athletic Club
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W2 D2).
Players in form
- Sergio Camello has scored 7 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Álvaro García has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Unai López has 0 goals and 3 assists in 7 league games this season.
- Unai Simón has made 17 saves in 6 league games this season.
- Robert Navarro has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- I. Williams has 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Rayo Vallecano
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Osasuna (A) | — |
| 15 Sep | W | 2-1 | Espanyol (H) | 1.5 - 1.5 |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-4 | Real Madrid (A) | 1.2 - 2.6 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | Racing Santander (H) | 1.6 - 0.5 |
| 31 Aug | L | 2-5 | Barcelona (A) | 1.1 - 2.8 |
| 20 Aug | D | 1-1 | Alaves (H) | 0.4 - 1.8 |
Recent form — Athletic Club
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | D | 0-0 | Alaves (H) | 1.6 - 0.1 |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Elche (H) | 2.4 - 0.8 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-0 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.4 - 1.0 |
| 30 Aug | W | 2-0 | Celta Vigo (A) | 2.6 - 0.6 |
| 27 Aug | L | 0-2 | Barcelona (A) | 0.2 - 3.9 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-3 | Sevilla (H) | 0.0 - 0.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Rayo Vallecano
-0.62
xG diff/game · 1.30 for, 1.92 against
Athletic Club
+0.32
xG diff/game · 1.38 for, 1.06 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 2026/27 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 1.167 | 10–15 | WLWLD |
| Athletic Club | La Liga | 2026/27 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 7–6 | DWWLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Athletic Club | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 1 wins, 2 draws, Athletic Club 7 wins — 2.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 26 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Athletic Club |
| 25 Aug 25 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano |