FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST

Hertha BSC
v SpVgg Greuther Fürth

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Team news: confirmed line-ups are in.

Confirmed line-ups

Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.

Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1

  1. 2 J. Eitschberger (D)
  2. 7 J. Brekalo (M)
  3. 8 K. Sessa (M)
  4. 18 L. Schuler (F)
  5. 19 O. Adewumi (M)
  6. 22 M. Pedersen (D)
  7. 23 J. Þorsteinsson (M)
  8. 27 N. Kolbe (D)
  9. 30 P. Seguin (M)
  10. 35 M. Gersbeck (G)
  11. 44 L. Gechter (D)

Bench: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht, T. Goller, S. Gouram, S. Grønning, P. Klemens, Boris Manuzah Lum, G. Nilsson, Selim Telib, D. Zeefuik

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-4-2

  1. 1 Florian Hellstern (G)
  2. 2 Lukas Reich (D)
  3. 6 S. Bansé (M)
  4. 8 S. Appelkamp (M)
  5. 10 Ole Pohlmann (M)
  6. 13 P. Will (M)
  7. 22 J. Heuer (D)
  8. 23 J. Dehm (D)
  9. 30 F. Klaus (F)
  10. 34 Hendry Aron Blank (D)
  11. 42 O. Sillah (F)

Bench: F. Ademi, D. Arifi, J. Siebatcheu, A. Keller, K. Keresztes, C. Ortag, D. Srbeny, M. Wallentowitz, Olgherto Balliu

The model's read

Hertha BSC
58%
match result
Draw
23%
match result
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
19%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Hertha BSC or draw80.8%
Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw41.7%
Double chance either team77.5%
Over 1.5 goals84.4%
Over 2.5 goals63.0%
Over 3.5 goals40.8%
Both teams to score60.8%
Hertha BSC over 1.5 team goals62.0%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals31.8%
Hertha BSC clean sheet31.7%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet12.2%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.3% · 2-1 9.8% · 2-0 8.6% · 1-0 7.2% · 3-1 6.9%

Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public, separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

The market’s read

Hertha BSC
61%
market implied · price 1.55 · opened 59%
Draw
21%
market implied · price 4.55 · opened 21%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
19%
market implied · price 5.02 · opened 19%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMoveModelGap
Double chance Hertha BSC or draw1.1680.8%+0.8 pts80.8%+0.0
Double chance SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw2.3839.3%-1.4 pts41.7%+2.5
Double chance either team1.1780.0%+0.6 pts77.5%-2.5
Draw no bet — Hertha BSC1.2276.1%+1.3 pts——
Draw no bet — SpVgg Greuther Fürth3.8923.9%-1.3 pts——
Over 1.5 goals1.0986.0%+0.8 pts84.4%-1.5
Over 2.5 goals1.3569.3%+1.8 pts63.0%-6.3
Over 3.5 goals1.9049.7%+2.3 pts40.8%-8.9
Both teams to score1.4265.1%+1.2 pts60.8%-4.3
Hertha BSC over 1.5 team goals1.3867.7%+1.2 pts62.0%-5.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth over 1.5 team goals2.5137.0%+0.3 pts31.8%-5.1
Hertha BSC clean sheet3.2529.0%+0.0 pts31.7%+2.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet9.0010.6%-1.3 pts12.2%+1.6

Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 8.21 · 1-1 9.44 · 3-1 10.55 · 2-0 10.57 · 1-0 11.76

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-11 11:01 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.

Hertha BSC

  • Hertha BSC have won their last 7 league games.
  • Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 10 league games (W9 D1).
  • Both teams have scored in each of Hertha BSC's last 5 league games.
  • 5 of Hertha BSC's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • SpVgg Greuther Fürth are winless in their last 3 league games (D2 L1).
  • Both teams scored in 5 of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 6 away league games.
  • SpVgg Greuther Fürth have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.

Players in form

  • Josip Brekalo has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
  • Sebastian Grønning has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
  • Marten Winkler has 1 goal and 2 assists in 2 league games this season.
  • F. Klaus has scored 5 goals in 3 league games this season.
  • Florian Hellstern has made 9 saves in 2 league games this season.

This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.

Recent form — Hertha BSC

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
19 SepW2-1Dynamo Dresden (A)2.6 - 0.8
13 SepW3-1VfL Osnabrück (A)2.1 - 1.7
06 SepW2-11. FC Magdeburg (H)1.3 - 0.9
28 AugW5-3Eintracht Braunschweig (A)3.5 - 2.2
15 AugW4-11. FC Heidenheim (H)2.0 - 1.0
07 AugW1-0VfL Bochum (A)0.6 - 1.0

Recent form — SpVgg Greuther Fürth

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
18 SepD1-11. FC Magdeburg (H)0.7 - 0.9
12 SepD1-1VfL Bochum (A)1.6 - 1.5
06 SepL0-11. FC Heidenheim (H)0.6 - 0.9
29 AugW4-3Energie Cottbus (A)2.0 - 3.0
15 AugL2-41. FC Nürnberg (H)2.8 - 1.2
09 AugD1-1FC St. Pauli (A)1.6 - 1.9

Chance quality, most recent season

Hertha BSC
+0.74
xG diff/game · 2.02 for, 1.28 against
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
-0.04
xG diff/game · 1.54 for, 1.57 against

Where they stand

TeamLeagueSeason PosP PtsPPGGoals Form
Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga2026/2716183.017–7WWWWW
SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga2026/2714661.09–11DDLWL

The table as it stands this season.

Home and away

TeamVenueLeagueSeason W-D-L Goals for / against per gameClean sheets
Hertha BSChome2. Bundesliga2026/272-0-03.0 / 1.00
SpVgg Greuther Fürthaway2. Bundesliga2026/271-2-02.0 / 1.70

This season’s home and away splits.

Head to head

Last 8 meetings: Hertha BSC 5 wins, 1 draws, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 wins — 3.38 goals a game on average.

DateHomeScoreAway
12 Dec 25SpVgg Greuther Fürth3-3Hertha BSC