FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Sun 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST

VfL Bochum
v Arminia Bielefeld

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Team news: confirmed line-ups are in.

Confirmed line-ups

Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.

VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Horn (G)
  2. 2 S. Klaiber (D)
  3. 5 K. Mets (D)
  4. 7 C. Rasmussen (M)
  5. 15 M. Steinwender (D)
  6. 17 G. Holtmann (M)
  7. 23 K. Miyoshi (M)
  8. 24 M. Pannewig (M)
  9. 32 M. Wittek (D)
  10. 33 P. Hofmann (F)
  11. 34 T. Meyer (M)

Bench: T. Casali, Alessandro Crimaldi, D. Hanslik, L. Isbruch, Y. Karademir, M. Ouro-Tagba, C. Patino, L. Sawas, B. Taz

Arminia Bielefeld 3-5-2

  1. 1 J. Kersken (G)
  2. 2 F. Hagmann (M)
  3. 3 J. Felix (D)
  4. 5 M. Bauer (D)
  5. 11 J. Grodowski (F)
  6. 17 A. Sicker (M)
  7. 19 M. Großer (D)
  8. 21 S. Russo (M)
  9. 30 I. Young (F)
  10. 31 L. Jensen (M)
  11. 38 M. Wörl (M)

Bench: S. Schreck, L. Schneider, J. Rochelt, L. Oppermann, D. Min, M. Mehlem, H. Koudossou, T. Handwerker, Benjamin Bediako Boakye

The model's read

VfL Bochum
47%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Arminia Bielefeld
26%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance VfL Bochum or draw73.6%
Double chance Arminia Bielefeld or draw52.9%
Double chance either team73.5%
Over 1.5 goals79.1%
Over 2.5 goals54.6%
Over 3.5 goals32.2%
Both teams to score57.8%
VfL Bochum over 1.5 team goals49.5%
Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 team goals33.8%
VfL Bochum clean sheet30.1%
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet19.0%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.5% · 2-1 9.5% · 1-0 8.4% · 2-0 7.9% · 0-0 6.8%

Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public, separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

The market’s read

VfL Bochum
41%
market implied · price 2.28 · opened 41%
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.51 · opened 26%
Arminia Bielefeld
32%
market implied · price 2.88 · opened 33%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMoveModelGap
Double chance VfL Bochum or draw1.3867.7%+0.4 pts73.6%+5.9
Double chance Arminia Bielefeld or draw1.6158.3%-0.7 pts52.9%-5.3
Double chance either team1.2674.1%+0.3 pts73.5%-0.6
Draw no bet — VfL Bochum1.6755.9%+0.6 pts——
Draw no bet — Arminia Bielefeld2.1144.1%-0.6 pts——
Over 1.5 goals1.1978.5%+0.4 pts79.1%+0.6
Over 2.5 goals1.6657.0%+0.7 pts54.6%-2.4
Over 3.5 goals2.5736.4%+0.4 pts32.2%-4.1
Both teams to score1.5460.2%+0.3 pts57.8%-2.4
VfL Bochum over 1.5 team goals1.9548.0%+0.7 pts49.5%+1.5
Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 team goals2.2541.4%-0.3 pts33.8%-7.7
VfL Bochum clean sheet3.5026.8%+1.8 pts30.1%+3.3
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet4.3321.7%+0.0 pts19.0%-2.7

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.85 · 2-1 8.74 · 1-0 9.66 · 1-2 10.01 · 0-1 11.11

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-11 11:01 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.

VfL Bochum

  • Only 1 of VfL Bochum's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.

Arminia Bielefeld

  • Arminia Bielefeld are winless in their last 4 league games (D2 L2).
  • Arminia Bielefeld have not won any of their last 6 away league games (D0 L6).
  • 5 of Arminia Bielefeld's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams have scored in each of Arminia Bielefeld's last 4 league games.

Players in form

  • Joel Grodowski has scored 3 goals in 2 league games this season.

This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.

Recent form — VfL Bochum

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
20 SepL1-2Hannover 96 (A)1.7 - 1.8
12 SepD1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)1.5 - 1.6
05 SepW2-1Dynamo Dresden (A)1.4 - 1.8
28 AugL0-1VfL Osnabrück (H)1.4 - 0.4
14 AugW1-0Eintracht Braunschweig (A)1.2 - 1.5
07 AugL0-1Hertha BSC (H)1.0 - 0.6

Recent form — Arminia Bielefeld

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
20 SepD2-21. FC Heidenheim (H)0.5 - 2.5
11 SepL1-2SV Darmstadt 98 (A)1.2 - 1.9
04 SepD2-2FC St. Pauli (H)1.1 - 1.0
29 AugL1-41. FC Nürnberg (A)1.2 - 0.9
16 AugW3-0Energie Cottbus (H)3.6 - 0.6
08 AugL1-2Karlsruher SC (A)1.2 - 1.4

Chance quality, most recent season

VfL Bochum
+0.09
xG diff/game · 1.39 for, 1.30 against
Arminia Bielefeld
+0.08
xG diff/game · 1.45 for, 1.38 against

Where they stand

TeamLeagueSeason PosP PtsPPGGoals Form
VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga2026/2711671.1675–6LDWLW
Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga2026/2715650.83310–12DLDLW

The table as it stands this season.

Home and away

TeamVenueLeagueSeason W-D-L Goals for / against per gameClean sheets
VfL Bochumhome2. Bundesliga2026/270-1-20.3 / 1.00
Arminia Bielefeldaway2. Bundesliga2026/270-0-31.0 / 2.70

This season’s home and away splits.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings: VfL Bochum 3 wins, 3 draws, Arminia Bielefeld 4 wins — 2.6 goals a game on average.

DateHomeScoreAway
06 Dec 25VfL Bochum1-0Arminia Bielefeld