Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 BST
Arminia Bielefeld
v VfL Osnabrück
The model's read
Arminia Bielefeld
45%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
VfL Osnabrück
28%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Arminia Bielefeld or draw | 71.6% |
| Double chance VfL Osnabrück or draw | 55.0% |
| Double chance either team | 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% |
| Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 team goals | 48.9% |
| VfL Osnabrück over 1.5 team goals | 36.2% |
| Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet | 28.1% |
| VfL Osnabrück clean sheet | 19.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.5% · 2-1 9.3% · 1-0 7.8% · 2-0 7.3% · 1-2 7.2%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Arminia Bielefeld
- Arminia Bielefeld are winless in their last 4 league games (D2 L2).
- 5 of Arminia Bielefeld's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in each of Arminia Bielefeld's last 4 league games.
- Arminia Bielefeld have averaged 2.0 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
VfL Osnabrück
- VfL Osnabrück are winless in their last 3 league games (D2 L1).
- Both teams have scored in each of VfL Osnabrück's last 4 league games.
Players in form
- Joel Grodowski has scored 3 goals in 2 league games this season.
- Konrad Faber has 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Arminia Bielefeld
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | D | 2-2 | 1. FC Heidenheim (H) | 0.5 - 2.5 |
| 11 Sep | L | 1-2 | SV Darmstadt 98 (A) | 1.2 - 1.9 |
| 04 Sep | D | 2-2 | FC St. Pauli (H) | 1.1 - 1.0 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-4 | 1. FC Nürnberg (A) | 1.2 - 0.9 |
| 16 Aug | W | 3-0 | Energie Cottbus (H) | 3.6 - 0.6 |
| 08 Aug | L | 1-2 | Karlsruher SC (A) | 1.2 - 1.4 |
Recent form — VfL Osnabrück
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Dynamo Dresden (H) | 1.5 - 0.6 |
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Holstein Kiel (A) | 1.8 - 2.1 |
| 13 Sep | L | 1-3 | Hertha BSC (H) | 1.7 - 2.1 |
| 06 Sep | W | 3-1 | Eintracht Braunschweig (H) | 2.4 - 1.9 |
| 28 Aug | W | 1-0 | VfL Bochum (A) | 0.4 - 1.4 |
| 15 Aug | L | 0-3 | 1. FC Magdeburg (H) | 0.9 - 1.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Arminia Bielefeld
+0.08
xG diff/game · 1.45 for, 1.38 against
VfL Osnabrück
-0.27
xG diff/game · 1.51 for, 1.78 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 8–10 | LDLWL |
| VfL Osnabrück | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 8–11 | LWWLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arminia Bielefeld | home | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 1 |
| VfL Osnabrück | away | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 5 wins, 4 draws, VfL Osnabrück 1 wins — 2.0 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.