Serie A
The Serie A through our xG model: the table underneath the table, our honest record on it, who plays next, and who is in form. Rebuilt from live data twice an hour. Not tips — a public test. This season.
xG ratings — the table underneath the table
Ranked by chance quality (xG difference per match), not by results. Every column sorts; hover a header for what it means.
On chance quality alone, Inter were the best side here (+1.72 xG difference per game). Lazio scored +8.0 goals more than their chances were worth, the biggest gap in the division. They also took +11.9 points more than those chances deserved. Gaps like that usually shrink over time, which is why sides at the top of them often fall away.
| # | Team | Pld | W-D-L | Pts | xPts | Pts +/- | GF | GA | xGF/g | xGA/g | xG diff | G vs xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 25 | 22.5 | +2.5 | 26 | 13 | 2.75 | 1.03 | +1.72 | -1.5 |
| 2 | AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 24 | 19.1 | +4.9 | 28 | 10 | 2.29 | 1.35 | +0.94 | +5.1 |
| 3 | Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 17 | 19.0 | -2.0 | 13 | 10 | 1.31 | 0.55 | +0.76 | -0.1 |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 23 | 17.8 | +5.2 | 18 | 8 | 1.85 | 1.22 | +0.63 | -0.5 |
| 5 | Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14 | 16.5 | -2.5 | 17 | 13 | 1.67 | 1.20 | +0.47 | +0.3 |
| 6 | Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 28 | 16.1 | +11.9 | 24 | 8 | 1.60 | 1.15 | +0.45 | +8.0 |
| 7 | AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21 | 15.6 | +5.4 | 21 | 12 | 1.62 | 1.26 | +0.36 | +4.8 |
| 8 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 7 | 14.8 | -7.8 | 17 | 24 | 1.59 | 1.38 | +0.21 | +1.1 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8 | 14.8 | -6.8 | 15 | 23 | 1.61 | 1.53 | +0.08 | -1.1 |
| 10 | Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14 | 14.5 | -0.5 | 14 | 13 | 1.38 | 1.37 | +0.02 | +0.2 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 14 | 0.92 | 1.17 | -0.26 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 11 | 11.5 | -0.5 | 16 | 20 | 1.54 | 1.84 | -0.29 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 13 | 11.5 | +1.5 | 14 | 16 | 1.11 | 1.44 | -0.33 | +2.9 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8 | 11.8 | -3.8 | 16 | 26 | 1.36 | 1.73 | -0.36 | +2.4 |
| 15 | Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 20 | 11.9 | +8.1 | 24 | 14 | 1.72 | 2.11 | -0.39 | +6.8 |
| 16 | Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 3 | 12.1 | -9.1 | 6 | 20 | 1.41 | 1.79 | -0.39 | -8.1 |
| 17 | Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 15 | 1.14 | 1.78 | -0.65 | -2.4 |
| 18 | Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 11 | 21 | 1.09 | 1.89 | -0.80 | +0.1 |
| 19 | Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | 11 | 23 | 1.16 | 2.23 | -1.07 | -0.6 |
| 20 | Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 15 | 0.74 | 1.83 | -1.09 | +0.6 |
What each column means
- Pld — Matches played
- W-D-L — Wins, draws and losses
- Pts — Actual league points won
- xPts — Expected points — what the chances created and conceded in each match were worth, run through the same model as the rest of the site
- Pts +/- — Actual points minus expected points. Positive means they took more from their chances than the chances deserved — finishing, goalkeeping, or luck
- GF — Goals scored
- GA — Goals conceded
- xGF/g — Expected goals created per match — the quality of chances they made
- xGA/g — Expected goals conceded per match — the quality of chances they allowed
- xG diff — xGF/g minus xGA/g. The honest measure of how good a side has been, regardless of results
- G vs xG — Goals scored minus expected goals. A big positive means clinical finishing or good luck, and it usually drifts back to zero
Our record on the Serie A
10 of 24 fixtures the model called here have read right so far, on 10–14 (6v) settled calls. CLV (did it beat the closing price?) +2.92% (n=27); reference P/L -2.60u. Small sample — the full record has the lot.
Coming up
- Venezia v Udinese — Fri 06 Nov · 19:45
- Cagliari v Frosinone — Sat 07 Nov · 14:00
- Torino v Lecce — Sat 07 Nov · 14:00
- Parma v Bologna — Sat 07 Nov · 17:00
- AS Roma v Sassuolo — Sat 07 Nov · 19:45
- Napoli v Lazio — Sun 08 Nov · 11:30
- Genoa v AC Milan — Sun 08 Nov · 14:00
- Monza v Atalanta — Sun 08 Nov · 14:00
- Inter v Como — Sun 08 Nov · 17:00
- Fiorentina v Juventus — Sun 08 Nov · 19:45
Each fixture page carries the model’s full market read. The whole board →
Players in form
This season, league games only. Match ratings are the data provider’s, not our model. Descriptive, not predictive.